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Tuesday, 14 November 17
IN 2018, WORLD OIL DEMAND IS FORESEEN REACHING 1.51 MB/D - OPEC
Oil Market Highlights - OPEC
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month and reaching the highest value in more than two-and-a-half years, with a year-to-date average of $50.68/b. Crude futures also reached levels not seen since mid-2015. ICE Brent ended $2.13 higher at $57.65/b, while NYMEX WTI increased $1.72, reaching $51.59/b, keeping the Brent-WTI spread above $6/b. Prices have been supported by rising global demand data and expectations that major producing nations will extend a deal to adjust output and bring the oil market to a balance. Hedge funds raised net long positions in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent futures and options by 29,456 and 21,592 contracts, respectively, to 281,244 and 530,237 lots. Brent and Dubai remained in backwardation, while the WTI contango eased. Sweet/sour differentials narrowed in Asia and Europe, but widened on the US Gulf Coast.
World Economy
The global economic growth dynamic has continued its momentum, with the forecast for 2017 revised up to 3.7%, from 3.6% in last month’s report. Similarly, the 2018 forecast has been adjusted higher as well to stand at 3.7%, compared to 3.5% in the previous month. Particularly OECD economic growth in 2017 was better than expected so far. The OECD is seen growing by upwardly revised 2.3% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018. Good momentum – and a potential tax reform – in the US, the ongoing dynamic in the Euro-zone and to some extent in Japan, solid growth in China and India and an improving situation in Russia and Brazil are supporting the growth trend in the short-term.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth is expected to rise by 1.53 mb/d in 2017 after an upward adjustment of 74 tb/d to account for the better-than-expected performance of China in 3Q17. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseen reaching 1.51 mb/d, around 130 tb/d higher than in the previous assessment.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply is now projected to grow by 0.65 mb/d y-o-y in 2017, representing a downward revision of 0.02 mb/d from last month’s report. For 2018, growth in non-OPEC oil supply has also been revised down by 0.07 mb/d to stand at 0.87 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d in 2018, following an increase of 0.17 mb/d in 2017. In October 2017, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 151 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.59 mb/d.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Product markets in the Atlantic Basin weakened in October due to seasonally-lower gasoline demand following the end of US driving season. Nonetheless, US refining margins have exhibited some improvement y-o-y on the back of firm product demand and amid low stock levels. In Europe, solid middle-of-the-barrel demand offset weakness at the top and bottom. Product markets in Asia also weakened slightly, but remained at healthy levels, supported by the onset of refinery maintenance.
Tanker Market
Sentiment in the dirty tanker market generally strengthened in October, as freight rates for different classes showed improvements on most major trading routes. Average dirty tanker spot freight rates rose 16% compared to the previous month, on the back of improved seasonal tonnage demand, as well as port and weather delays, among other factors. Despite healthy gains in October, the shipping market remains in surplus, capping further increases in spot freight rates. Meanwhile, clean tanker freight rates experienced a relative decline, although remaining above the levels of the same month last year.
Stock Movements
Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in September to stand at 2,985 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oil stocks are 154 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicated a surplus of around 129 mb and 25 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.3 days in September, some 1.9 days higher than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Based on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 33.0 mb/d, around 0.71 mb/d higher than in 2016. OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 33.4 mb/d, about 0.46 mb/d higher than in 2017.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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