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Tuesday, 14 November 17
IN 2018, WORLD OIL DEMAND IS FORESEEN REACHING 1.51 MB/D - OPEC
 Oil Market Highlights - OPEC
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month and reaching the highest value in more than two-and-a-half years, with a year-to-date average of $50.68/b. Crude futures also reached levels not seen since mid-2015. ICE Brent ended $2.13 higher at $57.65/b, while NYMEX WTI increased $1.72, reaching $51.59/b, keeping the Brent-WTI spread above $6/b. Prices have been supported by rising global demand data and expectations that major producing nations will extend a deal to adjust output and bring the oil market to a balance. Hedge funds raised net long positions in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent futures and options by 29,456 and 21,592 contracts, respectively, to 281,244 and 530,237 lots. Brent and Dubai remained in backwardation, while the WTI contango eased. Sweet/sour differentials narrowed in Asia and Europe, but widened on the US Gulf Coast.
World Economy
The global economic growth dynamic has continued its momentum, with the forecast for 2017 revised up to 3.7%, from 3.6% in last month’s report. Similarly, the 2018 forecast has been adjusted higher as well to stand at 3.7%, compared to 3.5% in the previous month. Particularly OECD economic growth in 2017 was better than expected so far. The OECD is seen growing by upwardly revised 2.3% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018. Good momentum – and a potential tax reform – in the US, the ongoing dynamic in the Euro-zone and to some extent in Japan, solid growth in China and India and an improving situation in Russia and Brazil are supporting the growth trend in the short-term.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth is expected to rise by 1.53 mb/d in 2017 after an upward adjustment of 74 tb/d to account for the better-than-expected performance of China in 3Q17. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseen reaching 1.51 mb/d, around 130 tb/d higher than in the previous assessment.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply is now projected to grow by 0.65 mb/d y-o-y in 2017, representing a downward revision of 0.02 mb/d from last month’s report. For 2018, growth in non-OPEC oil supply has also been revised down by 0.07 mb/d to stand at 0.87 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d in 2018, following an increase of 0.17 mb/d in 2017. In October 2017, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 151 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.59 mb/d.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Product markets in the Atlantic Basin weakened in October due to seasonally-lower gasoline demand following the end of US driving season. Nonetheless, US refining margins have exhibited some improvement y-o-y on the back of firm product demand and amid low stock levels. In Europe, solid middle-of-the-barrel demand offset weakness at the top and bottom. Product markets in Asia also weakened slightly, but remained at healthy levels, supported by the onset of refinery maintenance.
Tanker Market
Sentiment in the dirty tanker market generally strengthened in October, as freight rates for different classes showed improvements on most major trading routes. Average dirty tanker spot freight rates rose 16% compared to the previous month, on the back of improved seasonal tonnage demand, as well as port and weather delays, among other factors. Despite healthy gains in October, the shipping market remains in surplus, capping further increases in spot freight rates. Meanwhile, clean tanker freight rates experienced a relative decline, although remaining above the levels of the same month last year.
Stock Movements
Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in September to stand at 2,985 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oil stocks are 154 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicated a surplus of around 129 mb and 25 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.3 days in September, some 1.9 days higher than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Based on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 33.0 mb/d, around 0.71 mb/d higher than in 2016. OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 33.4 mb/d, about 0.46 mb/d higher than in 2017.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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