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Tuesday, 14 November 17
IN 2018, WORLD OIL DEMAND IS FORESEEN REACHING 1.51 MB/D - OPEC
 Oil Market Highlights - OPEC
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month and reaching the highest value in more than two-and-a-half years, with a year-to-date average of $50.68/b. Crude futures also reached levels not seen since mid-2015. ICE Brent ended $2.13 higher at $57.65/b, while NYMEX WTI increased $1.72, reaching $51.59/b, keeping the Brent-WTI spread above $6/b. Prices have been supported by rising global demand data and expectations that major producing nations will extend a deal to adjust output and bring the oil market to a balance. Hedge funds raised net long positions in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent futures and options by 29,456 and 21,592 contracts, respectively, to 281,244 and 530,237 lots. Brent and Dubai remained in backwardation, while the WTI contango eased. Sweet/sour differentials narrowed in Asia and Europe, but widened on the US Gulf Coast.
World Economy
The global economic growth dynamic has continued its momentum, with the forecast for 2017 revised up to 3.7%, from 3.6% in last month’s report. Similarly, the 2018 forecast has been adjusted higher as well to stand at 3.7%, compared to 3.5% in the previous month. Particularly OECD economic growth in 2017 was better than expected so far. The OECD is seen growing by upwardly revised 2.3% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018. Good momentum – and a potential tax reform – in the US, the ongoing dynamic in the Euro-zone and to some extent in Japan, solid growth in China and India and an improving situation in Russia and Brazil are supporting the growth trend in the short-term.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth is expected to rise by 1.53 mb/d in 2017 after an upward adjustment of 74 tb/d to account for the better-than-expected performance of China in 3Q17. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseen reaching 1.51 mb/d, around 130 tb/d higher than in the previous assessment.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply is now projected to grow by 0.65 mb/d y-o-y in 2017, representing a downward revision of 0.02 mb/d from last month’s report. For 2018, growth in non-OPEC oil supply has also been revised down by 0.07 mb/d to stand at 0.87 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d in 2018, following an increase of 0.17 mb/d in 2017. In October 2017, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 151 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.59 mb/d.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Product markets in the Atlantic Basin weakened in October due to seasonally-lower gasoline demand following the end of US driving season. Nonetheless, US refining margins have exhibited some improvement y-o-y on the back of firm product demand and amid low stock levels. In Europe, solid middle-of-the-barrel demand offset weakness at the top and bottom. Product markets in Asia also weakened slightly, but remained at healthy levels, supported by the onset of refinery maintenance.
Tanker Market
Sentiment in the dirty tanker market generally strengthened in October, as freight rates for different classes showed improvements on most major trading routes. Average dirty tanker spot freight rates rose 16% compared to the previous month, on the back of improved seasonal tonnage demand, as well as port and weather delays, among other factors. Despite healthy gains in October, the shipping market remains in surplus, capping further increases in spot freight rates. Meanwhile, clean tanker freight rates experienced a relative decline, although remaining above the levels of the same month last year.
Stock Movements
Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in September to stand at 2,985 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oil stocks are 154 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicated a surplus of around 129 mb and 25 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.3 days in September, some 1.9 days higher than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Based on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 33.0 mb/d, around 0.71 mb/d higher than in 2016. OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 33.4 mb/d, about 0.46 mb/d higher than in 2017.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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