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Tuesday, 14 November 17
IN 2018, WORLD OIL DEMAND IS FORESEEN REACHING 1.51 MB/D - OPEC
 Oil Market Highlights - OPEC
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month and reaching the highest value in more than two-and-a-half years, with a year-to-date average of $50.68/b. Crude futures also reached levels not seen since mid-2015. ICE Brent ended $2.13 higher at $57.65/b, while NYMEX WTI increased $1.72, reaching $51.59/b, keeping the Brent-WTI spread above $6/b. Prices have been supported by rising global demand data and expectations that major producing nations will extend a deal to adjust output and bring the oil market to a balance. Hedge funds raised net long positions in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent futures and options by 29,456 and 21,592 contracts, respectively, to 281,244 and 530,237 lots. Brent and Dubai remained in backwardation, while the WTI contango eased. Sweet/sour differentials narrowed in Asia and Europe, but widened on the US Gulf Coast.
World Economy
The global economic growth dynamic has continued its momentum, with the forecast for 2017 revised up to 3.7%, from 3.6% in last month’s report. Similarly, the 2018 forecast has been adjusted higher as well to stand at 3.7%, compared to 3.5% in the previous month. Particularly OECD economic growth in 2017 was better than expected so far. The OECD is seen growing by upwardly revised 2.3% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018. Good momentum – and a potential tax reform – in the US, the ongoing dynamic in the Euro-zone and to some extent in Japan, solid growth in China and India and an improving situation in Russia and Brazil are supporting the growth trend in the short-term.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth is expected to rise by 1.53 mb/d in 2017 after an upward adjustment of 74 tb/d to account for the better-than-expected performance of China in 3Q17. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseen reaching 1.51 mb/d, around 130 tb/d higher than in the previous assessment.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply is now projected to grow by 0.65 mb/d y-o-y in 2017, representing a downward revision of 0.02 mb/d from last month’s report. For 2018, growth in non-OPEC oil supply has also been revised down by 0.07 mb/d to stand at 0.87 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d in 2018, following an increase of 0.17 mb/d in 2017. In October 2017, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 151 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.59 mb/d.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Product markets in the Atlantic Basin weakened in October due to seasonally-lower gasoline demand following the end of US driving season. Nonetheless, US refining margins have exhibited some improvement y-o-y on the back of firm product demand and amid low stock levels. In Europe, solid middle-of-the-barrel demand offset weakness at the top and bottom. Product markets in Asia also weakened slightly, but remained at healthy levels, supported by the onset of refinery maintenance.
Tanker Market
Sentiment in the dirty tanker market generally strengthened in October, as freight rates for different classes showed improvements on most major trading routes. Average dirty tanker spot freight rates rose 16% compared to the previous month, on the back of improved seasonal tonnage demand, as well as port and weather delays, among other factors. Despite healthy gains in October, the shipping market remains in surplus, capping further increases in spot freight rates. Meanwhile, clean tanker freight rates experienced a relative decline, although remaining above the levels of the same month last year.
Stock Movements
Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in September to stand at 2,985 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oil stocks are 154 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicated a surplus of around 129 mb and 25 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.3 days in September, some 1.9 days higher than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Based on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 33.0 mb/d, around 0.71 mb/d higher than in 2016. OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 33.4 mb/d, about 0.46 mb/d higher than in 2017.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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