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Tuesday, 14 November 17
IN 2018, WORLD OIL DEMAND IS FORESEEN REACHING 1.51 MB/D - OPEC
 Oil Market Highlights - OPEC
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month and reaching the highest value in more than two-and-a-half years, with a year-to-date average of $50.68/b. Crude futures also reached levels not seen since mid-2015. ICE Brent ended $2.13 higher at $57.65/b, while NYMEX WTI increased $1.72, reaching $51.59/b, keeping the Brent-WTI spread above $6/b. Prices have been supported by rising global demand data and expectations that major producing nations will extend a deal to adjust output and bring the oil market to a balance. Hedge funds raised net long positions in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent futures and options by 29,456 and 21,592 contracts, respectively, to 281,244 and 530,237 lots. Brent and Dubai remained in backwardation, while the WTI contango eased. Sweet/sour differentials narrowed in Asia and Europe, but widened on the US Gulf Coast.
World Economy
The global economic growth dynamic has continued its momentum, with the forecast for 2017 revised up to 3.7%, from 3.6% in last month’s report. Similarly, the 2018 forecast has been adjusted higher as well to stand at 3.7%, compared to 3.5% in the previous month. Particularly OECD economic growth in 2017 was better than expected so far. The OECD is seen growing by upwardly revised 2.3% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018. Good momentum – and a potential tax reform – in the US, the ongoing dynamic in the Euro-zone and to some extent in Japan, solid growth in China and India and an improving situation in Russia and Brazil are supporting the growth trend in the short-term.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth is expected to rise by 1.53 mb/d in 2017 after an upward adjustment of 74 tb/d to account for the better-than-expected performance of China in 3Q17. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseen reaching 1.51 mb/d, around 130 tb/d higher than in the previous assessment.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply is now projected to grow by 0.65 mb/d y-o-y in 2017, representing a downward revision of 0.02 mb/d from last month’s report. For 2018, growth in non-OPEC oil supply has also been revised down by 0.07 mb/d to stand at 0.87 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d in 2018, following an increase of 0.17 mb/d in 2017. In October 2017, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 151 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.59 mb/d.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Product markets in the Atlantic Basin weakened in October due to seasonally-lower gasoline demand following the end of US driving season. Nonetheless, US refining margins have exhibited some improvement y-o-y on the back of firm product demand and amid low stock levels. In Europe, solid middle-of-the-barrel demand offset weakness at the top and bottom. Product markets in Asia also weakened slightly, but remained at healthy levels, supported by the onset of refinery maintenance.
Tanker Market
Sentiment in the dirty tanker market generally strengthened in October, as freight rates for different classes showed improvements on most major trading routes. Average dirty tanker spot freight rates rose 16% compared to the previous month, on the back of improved seasonal tonnage demand, as well as port and weather delays, among other factors. Despite healthy gains in October, the shipping market remains in surplus, capping further increases in spot freight rates. Meanwhile, clean tanker freight rates experienced a relative decline, although remaining above the levels of the same month last year.
Stock Movements
Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in September to stand at 2,985 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oil stocks are 154 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicated a surplus of around 129 mb and 25 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.3 days in September, some 1.9 days higher than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Based on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 33.0 mb/d, around 0.71 mb/d higher than in 2016. OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 33.4 mb/d, about 0.46 mb/d higher than in 2017.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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