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Tuesday, 07 November 17
PROSPERITY AND WINTER WARMTH REMAIN PARAMOUNT IN CHINA - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
 Chinese officials announced recently that 580 gigawatts of coal-derived electricity generation capacity has completed ultra-low emissions reform as of the end of Q3. This represents more than half of China's total coal-derived electricity generation, and according to the government this accomplishment is over two years ahead of schedule.
As Commodore Research has continued to discuss in China and coal-related coverage, the Chinese government is set to continue focusing on improving pollution -- but at the same time, there will still be a healthy demand for coal. While coal-derived electricity generation this November and December might not increase this year by 14% from October 2017's generation, a large increase is nevertheless likely to be seen again this year.
As discussed most recently in Commodore Research's November 6th Weekly China Report, Chinese coal-derived electricity generation is seasonal and always falls in October before finding great strength in November and December. So far this decade, China's coal-derived electricity generation in October has come in at a rate 8% lower than seen during the preceding three months. November and December, on average, have then historically seen a 14% increase from October's generation. Going forward, stronger demand for thermal coal (compared to October) is again set to occur, and this is coinciding with power plant stockpiles still standing at lower than normal levels for this time of year. Also helpful for coal import prospects is that Daqin Railway maintenance has commenced later than usual this year, which is putting a small amount of pressure on the transportation of domestic coal.
While specific information on the effects of the power plant ultra-low emissions reform program have not been released, the reform in itself is encouraging and points to coal likely being set to continue to drive electricity generation. Ensuring that electricity generation meets peak winter residential demand remains the single most important issue to China's government where electricity is concerned, and coal will never be shunned at the expense of heating the nation's masses. Along the same lines, new construction methods involving less pollution are being carried out in China as well. As discussed in Commodore Research's November 6th Weekly China Report, last week saw officials in China announce that a new construction method involving less pollution is being trialed in Shanghai. According to officials, an "inverse building method" is being used in the construction of an expansion to the Shanghai General Hospital. As part of this new method, construction both under and above ground are being conducted simultaneously to lower pollution.
Air pollution remains a large concern in China, but the government must also continue to make sure that construction, job creation, and economic growth maintain strength in the next several years. The Chinese government continues to have conflicting goals and cannot afford economic growth and development to slow substantially even as it continues to fight pollution. It also, of course, cannot afford for any electricity shortages to occur this winter. Improving air pollution will remain a key focus going forward, but Commodore Research does not anticipate that any sustained slowdown in the economy (and commodity import demand) will be seen during the next few years. For this winter, coal is also likely to remain in demand.
About Commodore Research & Consultancy
Commodore Research & Consultancy focuses on providing forward-looking views and analysis on the global economy, national economies, and individual equity and commodity markets. Commodore Research & Consultancy work provides non-consensus research and analysis and often highlights flaws in market consensus.
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Friday, 13 August 21
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO JAPAN DECLINED BY -26.3% YOY TO 11.9 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF 2021; STILL THE SECOND LARGEST SOURCE FOR JAPAN’S COAL IMPORTS IS INDONESIA - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-yea ...
Thursday, 12 August 21
ONLY 3 VLCCS SOLD FOR DEMOLITION IN 2021 AS SECONDHAND PRICES TEMPT - BIMCO
During the first seven months of 2021, only three actively trading Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have been sold for demolition. The current mar ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
U.S: EIA EXPECTS COAL EXPORTS TO TOTAL 90 MMST IN 2021, 30% INCREASE FROM 2020
Coal production in EIA's forecast totals 607 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, an increase of 13% over 2020.
EIA is also ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Energy is at the core of the global climate dialogue as the climate challenge is essentially an energy challenge. Policy experts around the world a ...
Tuesday, 10 August 21
34 INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES TEMPORARILY BANNED FOR COAL EXPORTS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has imposed sanctions in the form of a coal export ban for 34 coal companies as reported by CNB ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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