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Tuesday, 07 November 17
PROSPERITY AND WINTER WARMTH REMAIN PARAMOUNT IN CHINA - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
 Chinese officials announced recently that 580 gigawatts of coal-derived electricity generation capacity has completed ultra-low emissions reform as of the end of Q3. This represents more than half of China's total coal-derived electricity generation, and according to the government this accomplishment is over two years ahead of schedule.
As Commodore Research has continued to discuss in China and coal-related coverage, the Chinese government is set to continue focusing on improving pollution -- but at the same time, there will still be a healthy demand for coal. While coal-derived electricity generation this November and December might not increase this year by 14% from October 2017's generation, a large increase is nevertheless likely to be seen again this year.
As discussed most recently in Commodore Research's November 6th Weekly China Report, Chinese coal-derived electricity generation is seasonal and always falls in October before finding great strength in November and December. So far this decade, China's coal-derived electricity generation in October has come in at a rate 8% lower than seen during the preceding three months. November and December, on average, have then historically seen a 14% increase from October's generation. Going forward, stronger demand for thermal coal (compared to October) is again set to occur, and this is coinciding with power plant stockpiles still standing at lower than normal levels for this time of year. Also helpful for coal import prospects is that Daqin Railway maintenance has commenced later than usual this year, which is putting a small amount of pressure on the transportation of domestic coal.
While specific information on the effects of the power plant ultra-low emissions reform program have not been released, the reform in itself is encouraging and points to coal likely being set to continue to drive electricity generation. Ensuring that electricity generation meets peak winter residential demand remains the single most important issue to China's government where electricity is concerned, and coal will never be shunned at the expense of heating the nation's masses. Along the same lines, new construction methods involving less pollution are being carried out in China as well. As discussed in Commodore Research's November 6th Weekly China Report, last week saw officials in China announce that a new construction method involving less pollution is being trialed in Shanghai. According to officials, an "inverse building method" is being used in the construction of an expansion to the Shanghai General Hospital. As part of this new method, construction both under and above ground are being conducted simultaneously to lower pollution.
Air pollution remains a large concern in China, but the government must also continue to make sure that construction, job creation, and economic growth maintain strength in the next several years. The Chinese government continues to have conflicting goals and cannot afford economic growth and development to slow substantially even as it continues to fight pollution. It also, of course, cannot afford for any electricity shortages to occur this winter. Improving air pollution will remain a key focus going forward, but Commodore Research does not anticipate that any sustained slowdown in the economy (and commodity import demand) will be seen during the next few years. For this winter, coal is also likely to remain in demand.
About Commodore Research & Consultancy
Commodore Research & Consultancy focuses on providing forward-looking views and analysis on the global economy, national economies, and individual equity and commodity markets. Commodore Research & Consultancy work provides non-consensus research and analysis and often highlights flaws in market consensus.
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Monday, 23 August 21
CHINESE COAL PRODUCTION RISES 4.9 PCT IN 1ST 7 MONTHS OF 2021 - NBS
Official figures demonstrated that the Chinese raw coal production surged 4.9 percent annually to 2.26 billion tonnes in the January-July period of ...
Friday, 20 August 21
ARE WE LOOKING AT THE NEXT DRY BULK SUPER CYCLE? IS IT EVEN A CYCLE? - BIMCO
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs ...
Friday, 20 August 21
BIMCO'S SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK: CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS FALL TO 14-MONTH LOW IN JULY - PETER SAND
Chinese iron ore imports fell to 88.5 million tonnes in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The fall in July means that accumulated imports are ...
Friday, 20 August 21
SOARING DEMAND FOR THE WORLD’S LEAST-LIKED COMMODITY SEES THERMAL COAL PRICES JUMP 106% THIS YEAR - CNBC
Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least ...
Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Examining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed r ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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