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Tuesday, 07 November 17
PROSPERITY AND WINTER WARMTH REMAIN PARAMOUNT IN CHINA - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
 Chinese officials announced recently that 580 gigawatts of coal-derived electricity generation capacity has completed ultra-low emissions reform as of the end of Q3. This represents more than half of China's total coal-derived electricity generation, and according to the government this accomplishment is over two years ahead of schedule.
As Commodore Research has continued to discuss in China and coal-related coverage, the Chinese government is set to continue focusing on improving pollution -- but at the same time, there will still be a healthy demand for coal. While coal-derived electricity generation this November and December might not increase this year by 14% from October 2017's generation, a large increase is nevertheless likely to be seen again this year.
As discussed most recently in Commodore Research's November 6th Weekly China Report, Chinese coal-derived electricity generation is seasonal and always falls in October before finding great strength in November and December. So far this decade, China's coal-derived electricity generation in October has come in at a rate 8% lower than seen during the preceding three months. November and December, on average, have then historically seen a 14% increase from October's generation. Going forward, stronger demand for thermal coal (compared to October) is again set to occur, and this is coinciding with power plant stockpiles still standing at lower than normal levels for this time of year. Also helpful for coal import prospects is that Daqin Railway maintenance has commenced later than usual this year, which is putting a small amount of pressure on the transportation of domestic coal.
While specific information on the effects of the power plant ultra-low emissions reform program have not been released, the reform in itself is encouraging and points to coal likely being set to continue to drive electricity generation. Ensuring that electricity generation meets peak winter residential demand remains the single most important issue to China's government where electricity is concerned, and coal will never be shunned at the expense of heating the nation's masses. Along the same lines, new construction methods involving less pollution are being carried out in China as well. As discussed in Commodore Research's November 6th Weekly China Report, last week saw officials in China announce that a new construction method involving less pollution is being trialed in Shanghai. According to officials, an "inverse building method" is being used in the construction of an expansion to the Shanghai General Hospital. As part of this new method, construction both under and above ground are being conducted simultaneously to lower pollution.
Air pollution remains a large concern in China, but the government must also continue to make sure that construction, job creation, and economic growth maintain strength in the next several years. The Chinese government continues to have conflicting goals and cannot afford economic growth and development to slow substantially even as it continues to fight pollution. It also, of course, cannot afford for any electricity shortages to occur this winter. Improving air pollution will remain a key focus going forward, but Commodore Research does not anticipate that any sustained slowdown in the economy (and commodity import demand) will be seen during the next few years. For this winter, coal is also likely to remain in demand.
About Commodore Research & Consultancy
Commodore Research & Consultancy focuses on providing forward-looking views and analysis on the global economy, national economies, and individual equity and commodity markets. Commodore Research & Consultancy work provides non-consensus research and analysis and often highlights flaws in market consensus.
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Wednesday, 28 July 21
IN THE PHILIPPINES, COAL’S DEMISE MAKES WAY FOR A RENEWABLE ENERGY BOOM - IEEFA
Imported gas lock-in could undermine the economic benefits of a clean energy transition
The Philippines’ energy sector is on t ...
Wednesday, 28 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during this first half of the year, we continue to come across surprises and new restrictions which are trembling ...
Saturday, 24 July 21
UNDERSTANDING INDIA'S LATEST PEAK POWER DEMAND RECORD - IEEFA
Ramping up solar will be crucial as peak power demand hits during the day
At around noon on 7 July 2021, India’s instantaneous ...
Wednesday, 21 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry Buk Sales and Purchase activity has heated up during 2021, reaching record high levels during the first half of the year. The increased interes ...
Monday, 19 July 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 6.4 PCT IN H1 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output climbed 6.4 percent year on year to 1.95 billion tonnes in the first six months of the year, official data showed.
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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