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Tuesday, 07 November 17
PROSPERITY AND WINTER WARMTH REMAIN PARAMOUNT IN CHINA - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
 Chinese officials announced recently that 580 gigawatts of coal-derived electricity generation capacity has completed ultra-low emissions reform as of the end of Q3. This represents more than half of China's total coal-derived electricity generation, and according to the government this accomplishment is over two years ahead of schedule.
As Commodore Research has continued to discuss in China and coal-related coverage, the Chinese government is set to continue focusing on improving pollution -- but at the same time, there will still be a healthy demand for coal. While coal-derived electricity generation this November and December might not increase this year by 14% from October 2017's generation, a large increase is nevertheless likely to be seen again this year.
As discussed most recently in Commodore Research's November 6th Weekly China Report, Chinese coal-derived electricity generation is seasonal and always falls in October before finding great strength in November and December. So far this decade, China's coal-derived electricity generation in October has come in at a rate 8% lower than seen during the preceding three months. November and December, on average, have then historically seen a 14% increase from October's generation. Going forward, stronger demand for thermal coal (compared to October) is again set to occur, and this is coinciding with power plant stockpiles still standing at lower than normal levels for this time of year. Also helpful for coal import prospects is that Daqin Railway maintenance has commenced later than usual this year, which is putting a small amount of pressure on the transportation of domestic coal.
While specific information on the effects of the power plant ultra-low emissions reform program have not been released, the reform in itself is encouraging and points to coal likely being set to continue to drive electricity generation. Ensuring that electricity generation meets peak winter residential demand remains the single most important issue to China's government where electricity is concerned, and coal will never be shunned at the expense of heating the nation's masses. Along the same lines, new construction methods involving less pollution are being carried out in China as well. As discussed in Commodore Research's November 6th Weekly China Report, last week saw officials in China announce that a new construction method involving less pollution is being trialed in Shanghai. According to officials, an "inverse building method" is being used in the construction of an expansion to the Shanghai General Hospital. As part of this new method, construction both under and above ground are being conducted simultaneously to lower pollution.
Air pollution remains a large concern in China, but the government must also continue to make sure that construction, job creation, and economic growth maintain strength in the next several years. The Chinese government continues to have conflicting goals and cannot afford economic growth and development to slow substantially even as it continues to fight pollution. It also, of course, cannot afford for any electricity shortages to occur this winter. Improving air pollution will remain a key focus going forward, but Commodore Research does not anticipate that any sustained slowdown in the economy (and commodity import demand) will be seen during the next few years. For this winter, coal is also likely to remain in demand.
About Commodore Research & Consultancy
Commodore Research & Consultancy focuses on providing forward-looking views and analysis on the global economy, national economies, and individual equity and commodity markets. Commodore Research & Consultancy work provides non-consensus research and analysis and often highlights flaws in market consensus.
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Friday, 27 August 21
THE ECONOMICS OF INDONESIA’S DIESEL POWER PLANT TO GAS CONVERSION PLAN ARE PROBLEMATIC - IEEFA
Deploying new small-scale LNG is an uphill battle for PGN
Indonesian gas is currently in a precarious position, where the government needs to ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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