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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Monday, 19 September 16
AFTER YEARS OF COMA, COAL BECOMES THE MOST ATTRACTIVE COMMODITY RIGHT NOW
COALspot.com: China boosted coal imports in recent months. The Chinese government’s drive to cut over capacity pushed up the demand for therm ...
Monday, 19 September 16
THE CAPE INDEX WAS UP 7.28% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities declined and ending in a slightly negative note this past ...
Friday, 16 September 16
GLOBAL SHIPBUILDING: THE CHALLENGE TO REMAIN 'ACTIVE' - CHRISTOPHER PEARCE, CLARKSONS
The number of ‘active’ shipyards globally has more than halved since the start of 2009, falling to around 400 shipyards at the start of ...
Friday, 16 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED 6.2% TO 15.1 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million short ton ...
Thursday, 15 September 16
INDONESIA MAY FACE A COAL CRISIS BY 2035!
COALspot.com: Indonesia is the world’s fourth-largest coal producer and the world’s largest thermal coal exporter may face a coal crisi ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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