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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Thursday, 15 September 16
CAPESIZE: LAST WEEK ENDED ON A VERY STRONG NOTE MAINLY DRIVEN BY A ACTIVE BRAZIL MARKET - FEARNLYS
Supramax
With holidays in the eastern hemisphere beginning this week, the sentiment and activity level has been decreasing.
In the Pacific, ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.48 MMT OF COAL IN AUGUST; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE WAS $AU 83.33
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU $1,040.4 ...
Tuesday, 13 September 16
CAPESIZE: BIG STRENGTH SEEN IN THE MARKET THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize - Big strength seen in the market this week, with an upbeat in sentiment amongst owners helping pull up rates fairly quickly and many hold ...
Monday, 12 September 16
THE CAPE MARKET HAS GAINS ON WEEK; THE CAPE INDEX SETTLING AT 1566 POINTS ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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