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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Wednesday, 28 September 16
WITHOUT A DOUBT FREIGHT RATES HAVE MOVED UP A BIT TO HEALTHIER LEVELS - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching Q4, it is interesting to perform a review of the last nine months with respect to the second-hand prices of Supramax and Pana ...
Tuesday, 27 September 16
THE CAPESIZE RATE OF INCREASE HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE, UP 39% W/W AND 123% MONTH TO DATE - ALLIED
The Dry bulk market has seen a rare shine in its performance as the capesize sector manages to rally at an unprecedented rate compared to its perfo ...
Monday, 26 September 16
COAL PRICES HAVE BEEN MOVING STEADILY HIGHER AFTER YEARS OF DECLINE
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 26 September 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRM; ALL SEGMENTS WERE UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
Friday, 23 September 16
"COLLATERAL LIES" DO NOT NECESSARILY UNDERMINE AN INSURANCE CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An insured was not precluded from recovering under an insurance policy even though it had made a false statement during t ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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