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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Friday, 09 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED SLIGHTLY TO 16.1 MMST, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 09 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE SENTIMENT IS SOLID, SAYS FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A quiet start with Labour Day celebrations in the United States leading to very little being reported from the Atlantic basin. Supramaxe ...
Thursday, 08 September 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS IN JUNE 2016 UP 29% COMPARED TO MAY 2016, SAYS EIA
U.S. coal production in August was 71 million short tons (MMst), which is 6 MMst (9%) higher than in the previous month and 12 MMst (14%) lower tha ...
Wednesday, 07 September 16
WEEKLY MARKET (TANKER) REPORT - INTERMODAL
What goes around comes around! The Shipping industry is infamous for its seasonality and cyclicality and the tanker sector is no exception to these ...
Tuesday, 06 September 16
INDO GOVT. SETS SEPTEMBER COAL REFERENCE PRICE AT US$ 63.93 PER TON; JUMP 20.17% YTD
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since April 2015. The government declared benchmark prices f ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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