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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Wednesday, 07 December 16
IT'S BEEN YET ANOTHER TURBULENT COUPLE OF DAYS..... - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It’s been yet another turbulent couple of days, with a significant number of news headlines shaking up markets.
On Friday we had & ...
Monday, 05 December 16
INDIAN HYDROPOWER PRODUCTION AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2012, SAYS COMMODORE RESEARCH
According to Commodore Research, the first eleven months of this year have seen India’s overall electricity production total approximately 1. ...
Monday, 05 December 16
THE DECEMBER 2016 HBA HITS TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE MAY 2012
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since May 2012. The government declared benchmark prices for Indo ...
Monday, 05 December 16
BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX UP 5.98%; BALTIC CAPE INDEX FELL 2.52% W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rally slightly continues this past week and ending on a s ...
Sunday, 04 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED 11.9% W/E 26 NOV; UP 1.4% Y/Y, EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.2 million short ton ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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