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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Thursday, 01 December 16
OIL PRICES MAY SEE LITTLE GROWTH BEFORE 2018, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
High inventories and the potential for US shale production to respond quickly to any market tightening mean oil prices may flat line in 2017 before ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
CHINA 2017 OIL, GAS OUTPUT DROP MAY WORSEN ON CAPEX CUT: FITCH
China's oil and gas production may shrink even more in 2017 than in 2016 after the country's leading oil companies cut exploration and prod ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
ANOTHER WONDERFUL WEEK FOR PANAMAX - FEARNLEY
Supramax
A slower start to the week in the Pacific compared to last Trips from N. China to S. China is paying in the range of low USD 5k, while I ...
Tuesday, 29 November 16
AUSTRALIA'S PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.08 MT OF COAL IN OCTOBER; DOWN 10.39% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,124.7 Mi ...
Tuesday, 29 November 16
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT TOTALS 17.2 MMST, UP 2.8% : EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17.2 million short ton ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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