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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Monday, 28 November 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX FALLS TO 1181 POINT, DOWN 76 POINTS W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities down slightly and ending in a negative note this past wee ...
Thursday, 24 November 16
SUPRAMAX: SOUTH AFRICA STILL STRONG WITH OWNERS ACHIEVING AROUND USD 14-15K FOR TRIPS EAST - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A positive kick-off in both the Atlantic and the Pacific. Very healthy rates within USG, some supras receiving well over 20k for trips t ...
Wednesday, 23 November 16
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is due to finalize a reduction in total production at its next scheduled meeting in Vi ...
Tuesday, 22 November 16
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO DECLINE 7% Y/Y TO 15 MILLION TONS IN 2017 - ITALIAN COAL ASSOCIATION
Italy’s steam coal imports expected to decline to 15 million tons in 2017, or 7% less imports compared to 2016. The coking coal imports are e ...
Tuesday, 22 November 16
THE COMMODITIES MARKETS HAD SHOWED GREATER PROMISE SINCE THE SUMMER PERIOD - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have all borne witness to the sluggish pace of trade growth witnessed during the course of the past 4 years as well as the even slower pace note ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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