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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Wednesday, 14 December 16
20/20 VISION! - JOHN N. COTZIAS
2020; A year that could be changing shipping. In early November, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced that it would set a 0.5% s ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET MAY WELL BE SHOWING SIGNS OF HEADING FOR ITS DOWNWARD CORRECTIVE PHASE - ALLIED
2016 has been a tough market for dry bulkers and through these difficult earnings, we have seen some of the lowest prices being noted historically ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
COAL DEMAND GROWTH TO STALL AS APPETITE WANES, ACCORDING TO IEA
Growth in global coal demand will stall over the next five years as the appetite for the fuel wanes and other energy sources gain ground, according ...
Monday, 12 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.3 MMST, UP 7.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million short ton ...
Monday, 12 December 16
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this past week and ending on a negative note week ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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