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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 November 16
FROTHY THERMAL COAL PRICES POINT TO DOWNSIDE PRESSURES IN 2017 - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says in an Outlook Report that the Asian thermal coal industry will remain under pressure in 2017 due to more-than-adequate capacity ...
Thursday, 17 November 16
CHINA STEEL EXPORTS TO REMAIN HIGH IN 2017, FITCH SAYS
Fitch Ratings expects Chinese steel exports to remain at around 100 million metric tons (Mt) in 2017, due to flat 'apparent' consumption an ...
Wednesday, 16 November 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Going through a relatively interesting second half of the year so far in the ship repair sector, we are experiencing a volatile climate of differen ...
Tuesday, 15 November 16
CHINA, FOR MANY YEARS NOW HAS SERVED AS A MAJOR GROWTH ENGINE FOR ASIA - ALLIED SHIPPING RESEARCH
It’s been a turbulent couple of days after the announcement of the U.S. Presidential results in the early hours of Wednesday.
After week ...
Monday, 14 November 16
KOMIPO'S SEOCHEON POWER PLANT TO IMPORT 240,000 MT OF SEMI / ANTHRACITE COAL FOR Q1'17
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 240K mt of Semi-Anthracite and Anthracite Coal f ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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