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Wednesday, 07 December 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 Looking back at my previous end-of-year insights, for the last seven years, in each and every one of them, I begin with something like “there are about 1,000 new building bulk carriers scheduled to be delivered during next year”. Every year for the last seven years the orderbook has been casting a shadow over the long awaited shipping recovery.
Despite record demolition activity, despite slippage and cancellations, too many ships were being delivered in the market for too long. As of today, we still have another 990 bulk carriers scheduled for delivery over the next 3 years - about 650 for 2017 only - so many shipping people are still skeptical about the market's recovery. On the other hand, at the end of 2014 the orderbook for 2015-2017 stood at 1,800 ships, whilst in December 2015 it was at 1,400! So provided also that not all of the currently listed new buildings – many have been canceled without this being reflected in the books - will be delivered, we can see that we are on the downhill of Mount Orderbook.
We are again at a crossroad, with demand trying to find its support against supply (not only newbuildings, but also new ships waiting at shipyards, lay-ups, and slow-steaming) that can still put pressure on ships' utilization. However shipping is mainly for investors who rely on directional investing, which simply requires the market to move consistently in the desired direction, which can be either up or down. So, while during the past years only one thing has been proven, that one cannot and should not make any predictions about the market.
The latest momentum has shown that, if the mistakes of the past are not repeated, the next two years could give the consistency that our community has been long waiting in order to implement their strategy. Purchases during this year have so far been proven brave but profitable and as such, asset prices have been recently on the rise. Those ships built during the 2000s have benefited the most, and we already have a few cases where a quick but substantial profit has been materialized from buying and selling just a few months later.
Another variable that increases complexity in decision making are the upcoming but still 'immature' regulations, as well described in one of our previous insights by my colleague Vassilis, which are affecting not only the ship repair market, but also S&P decisions. The blurry scenery only makes some shipowners more conservative or others more speculative.
Most owners however are price driven and look to buy older ships where the acquisition cost is still close to historically low levels and leave the decision of whether the cost to invest in upgrading is manageable or not, on how the market will be when the implementation time comes.
So on top of our warmer wishes for the holiday period, our quote for the year end is borrowed from the philosopher Epictetus: "Make the best use of what is in your power, and take the rest as it happens".
By Theodoros Ntalakos
Newbuilding / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 21 November 16
CHINA IS ESTIMATED TO SEE HIGHEST IMPORTED COAL DEMAND LEVEL IN 2017, POLL SAYS
“Which country is estimated to see highest imported coal demand level in 2017?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted by COALsp ...
Monday, 21 November 16
KOMIPO IS LOOKING FOR 140K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR FEB-MAR 2017 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 140,000 Metric Tons of Sub-Bituminous coal for i ...
Monday, 21 November 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX SURGES TO 1257 POINTS W/E 18 NOV; BPI ROSE 37.3% W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rally continues this past week and ending on a positive n ...
Friday, 18 November 16
CAPESIZE: THE COMMODITIES PRICES ARE INCREASING, RESULTING IN MORE DEMAND AND CONSEQUENTLY RATES ARE MAKING A BIG JUMP - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Apart from booming S. Africa where owners have obtained USD 14-15k to MEG/India and around mid USD 12k to China, the Pacific market has ...
Friday, 18 November 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.8 MMST, DOWN 0.8%, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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