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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 August 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX CLIMB 15.96% YEAR TO DATE - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 4200 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 1.65 % week over week to averaging $31.46 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) ...
Tuesday, 23 August 16
KOMIPO TO IMPORT 250K OF 5,700 KCAL/KG NAR COAL FOR Q4' 16
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for total 250,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for ...
Monday, 22 August 16
INDONESIA'S CS 5000 GAR THERMAL COAL INDEX, ROSE TO A 57-WEEKS HIGH TO TOP $43.47 A TON
COALspot.com: Indonesia’s CS 5000 GAR thermal coal index, rose to a 57-weeks high to top $US43. 47 a ton in the latest week, extending a 18-w ...
Monday, 22 August 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY THIS PAST WEEK; CAPE INDEX DECLINE 5.38%
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
Friday, 19 August 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALLED AN ESTIMATED 421.6 MMST
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.8 million short ton ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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