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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 06 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE PACIFIC BASIN WAS THE MAIN REGION KEEPING UP WITH THE POSITIVE SUPPORT - ALLIED
Capesize
Despite some mixed feelings being seen early on in the week, we managed to see a positive week-on-week close on Friday with some positiv ...
Monday, 05 September 16
INDIA BECAME ADARO'S SECOND LARGEST MARKET IN 1H' 16
COALspot.com: The Wara Balangan blend product has been well received by customers in China and India - AI
In the second quarter of 2 ...
Monday, 05 September 16
POOR FREIGHT RATES DESPITE STRONG DEMAND GROWTH FROM CHINA - BIMCO
Demand
The dry bulk commodity imports into and exports out of China we have seen in the first half of 2016 are very positive – and nothing ...
Monday, 05 September 16
FREIGHT RATE FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
Friday, 02 September 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 19 MMST IN 2016 TO 55 MMST
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million sho ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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