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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 29 August 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY AND FIRM THIS PAST WEEK; BCI ROSE 18.74%
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
Friday, 26 August 16
WEEKLY US COAL OUTPUT UP 0.7% W/W TO 16 MMST: EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16 million short tons ...
Thursday, 25 August 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE BEING FIXED IN REGION OF $9000
Supramax
Due to Chinese coal imports which continues to source much of the tonnage in SE Asia combined with a good flow of mineral exports ex Aus ...
Wednesday, 24 August 16
MARKET INSIGHT
Brazil and the world bid farewell on Sunday to the first Olympic Games in South America in the midst of a finale meant to be both one last bash and ...
Wednesday, 24 August 16
DRY BULK VESSELS FACE CONTINUED DISTRESS - CLEAR ASSET
Dry bulk vessels have faced extreme distress in recent years. With a combination of factors including newer vessels being ordered with up to 5-year ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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