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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 09 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED SLIGHTLY TO 16.1 MMST, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 09 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE SENTIMENT IS SOLID, SAYS FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A quiet start with Labour Day celebrations in the United States leading to very little being reported from the Atlantic basin. Supramaxe ...
Thursday, 08 September 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS IN JUNE 2016 UP 29% COMPARED TO MAY 2016, SAYS EIA
U.S. coal production in August was 71 million short tons (MMst), which is 6 MMst (9%) higher than in the previous month and 12 MMst (14%) lower tha ...
Wednesday, 07 September 16
WEEKLY MARKET (TANKER) REPORT - INTERMODAL
What goes around comes around! The Shipping industry is infamous for its seasonality and cyclicality and the tanker sector is no exception to these ...
Tuesday, 06 September 16
INDO GOVT. SETS SEPTEMBER COAL REFERENCE PRICE AT US$ 63.93 PER TON; JUMP 20.17% YTD
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since April 2015. The government declared benchmark prices f ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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