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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 September 16
CAPESIZE: LAST WEEK ENDED ON A VERY STRONG NOTE MAINLY DRIVEN BY A ACTIVE BRAZIL MARKET - FEARNLYS
Supramax
With holidays in the eastern hemisphere beginning this week, the sentiment and activity level has been decreasing.
In the Pacific, ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.48 MMT OF COAL IN AUGUST; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE WAS $AU 83.33
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU $1,040.4 ...
Tuesday, 13 September 16
CAPESIZE: BIG STRENGTH SEEN IN THE MARKET THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize - Big strength seen in the market this week, with an upbeat in sentiment amongst owners helping pull up rates fairly quickly and many hold ...
Monday, 12 September 16
THE CAPE MARKET HAS GAINS ON WEEK; THE CAPE INDEX SETTLING AT 1566 POINTS ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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