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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 September 16
AFTER YEARS OF COMA, COAL BECOMES THE MOST ATTRACTIVE COMMODITY RIGHT NOW
COALspot.com: China boosted coal imports in recent months. The Chinese government’s drive to cut over capacity pushed up the demand for therm ...
Monday, 19 September 16
THE CAPE INDEX WAS UP 7.28% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities declined and ending in a slightly negative note this past ...
Friday, 16 September 16
GLOBAL SHIPBUILDING: THE CHALLENGE TO REMAIN 'ACTIVE' - CHRISTOPHER PEARCE, CLARKSONS
The number of ‘active’ shipyards globally has more than halved since the start of 2009, falling to around 400 shipyards at the start of ...
Friday, 16 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED 6.2% TO 15.1 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million short ton ...
Thursday, 15 September 16
INDONESIA MAY FACE A COAL CRISIS BY 2035!
COALspot.com: Indonesia is the world’s fourth-largest coal producer and the world’s largest thermal coal exporter may face a coal crisi ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
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