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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 03 October 16
THERMAL COAL PRICE SHOOTS UP AND MADE THEIR VERTICAL MOVE IN 5 YEARS; PRICE RALLY CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 03 October 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING FREIGHTS SLIDE IN SOFTENING SPOT MARKET
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 30 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 2.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is la ...
Thursday, 29 September 16
FREIGHT RATES MIGHT CONTINUE TO SLIDE NEXT WEEK DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN CHINA
Supramax
Flat start to week followed by a slight gain in rates for Supramaxes, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
According to Fear ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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