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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 03 October 16
THERMAL COAL PRICE SHOOTS UP AND MADE THEIR VERTICAL MOVE IN 5 YEARS; PRICE RALLY CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 03 October 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING FREIGHTS SLIDE IN SOFTENING SPOT MARKET
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 30 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 2.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is la ...
Thursday, 29 September 16
FREIGHT RATES MIGHT CONTINUE TO SLIDE NEXT WEEK DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN CHINA
Supramax
Flat start to week followed by a slight gain in rates for Supramaxes, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
According to Fear ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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