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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 October 16
INDONESIA'S DEMAND FOR COAL REMAINS STRONG: BP
Indonesia's domestic demand for coal shows no sign of slowing down as the country is banking on its coal abundance to meet the country' ...
Friday, 07 October 16
CEYLON SHIPPING CORPORATION HAS TAKEN DELIVERY OF COAL CARRIER MV.CEYLON PRINCESS
Sri Lanka’s Ceylon Shipping Corporation (CSC) has taken delivery of its second newly built bulk carrier for the transportation of coal to pow ...
Friday, 07 October 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALLED AN ESTIMATED 540.5 MMST; DOWN 21.9% Y-O-Y, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 06 October 16
SHIPS IN PACIFIC ACHIEVE JUST ABOVE $10K DAILY FOR A BRAZIL ROUND VOYAGE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slower week with limited activity due to holidays in the East. Mixed feelings within different markets, with slight downturn in Pacific ...
Wednesday, 05 October 16
OPEC TO SHUT OFF MORE THAN 6 PERCENT OF ITS PRODUCTION; MIXED FEELING AMONGST TRADERS - ALLIED
OPEC recent accord to shut off more than 6 percent of its production this past week has been met with mixed feeling amongst traders. As we mo ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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