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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Ar ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
INDIAN STEELMAKERS' DELEVERAGING AT RISK ON COKING COAL PRICE JUMP - FITCH
The sharp increase in coking coal prices since August 2016 could squeeze Indian steelmakers' profitability and threaten their deleveraging, Fit ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
UK SEABORNE COAL IMPORT PLUNGES 64% AS A WORRYING TREND LURKS - BIMCO
The main exporters of thermal coal for coal- fired power plants to the United Kingdom (UK) have experienced a heavy decline in seaborne cargo volum ...
Monday, 10 October 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE SEPTEMBER 2014
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since September 2014. The government declared benchmark prices for Indon ...
Monday, 10 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET FIRMS UP ON STRONG CAPE PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose again and ending in a positive note this past week. ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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