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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 September 16
EIA SEES U.S. COAL WEEKLY OUTPUT INCREASE
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Thursday, 22 September 16
CHINA IS THE PRICE-SETTING COUNTRY FOR GLOBAL THERMAL COAL
COALspot.com: China has been the driver of global coal growth since 2009. When China became the largest coal importer in 2011, the country also has ...
Thursday, 22 September 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE ACHIEVING AROUND $7000 FOR A TRIP WITH SINGAPORE DELIVERY VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA
Supramax
A slow start to the week in the Supramax segment in the Atlantic with not much being reported.
In the Blacksea Supramaxes are getti ...
Wednesday, 21 September 16
THE CAPESIZE MARKET HAS BEEN ON A RALLYING TREND SINCE THE END OF AUGUST - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The Capesize market has been on a rallying trend since the end of August, fuelled mainly by the chase by traders to pre-stock before the typical pi ...
Wednesday, 21 September 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
Amidst a challenging dry bulk and tanker market, very little time has been spent on the offshore industry developments during the past couple of ye ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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