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Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
 In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand growth/patterns, and deflation in asset prices. And how prevalently this deflation has already manifested in newbuilding prices! In real dollar terms, we are currently at historic all-time lows!
In regards to dry bulkers, there is essentially no newbuilding market due to the steep discount of newbuilding resales versus ‘new’ newbuilding contracts. For example, Chinese Cape resales stand at rgn $33m while no yard can quote less than low $40m’s for newbuilding. Newbuilding prices are well into all-time inflation-adjusted lows. For instance, in 1985 at the absolute nominal nadir, Panamax Bulker newbuildings could be contracted at $13.5m which translate at $30.2m today’s dollars. This is low enough for investing because it is substantially below the true cost of creating the underlying asset and the current NB resale prices benchmark a nominal 15-year low vs newbuilding prices, a metric that appears unbeatable for several investments including shipping.
Tanker newbuilding prices are also depressed but at least there is a thin market with several LOIs placed and fewer actual contracts. Interestingly, in nominal terms we are well below the 2012 lows, one of the worst tanker freight years in modern history. This can be attributed to the deteriorating lack of financing and outlook on the segment. Tanker newbuildings will eventually become a buying opportunity since second hand vessel prices have been correcting but not any close to the dry bulk levels (the last is tanker owners’ worst fear).
Shipbuilding prices are moving towards the bottom while will remain low for some time -unless something spectacular occurs in the freight market- due to government subsidies, over-competition, low commodity prices, currencies devaluations, lack of financing and the yards resolution to accept loss-making orders to keep the production line going. On the other hand, the substantial downsizing of shipbuilding overcapacity, the emergence of government-backed NB contracts, certain attempts to cartelize pricing (see, Korea) and regulatory developments constitute major resistance levels.
All in all, the prevailing dry bulk newbuilding resales represent an attractive entry point. The ongoing correction in tanker newbuilding prices, which are already well-below the 2002 crashed prices in real dollars, will eventually lead to excellently timed orders. Hopefully over-ordering this time will be avoided thanks to lack of financing and the recent/ongoing traumas.Chartering (Wet: Stable +/ Dry: Firm +)
With a lot of help from Capes last week, the dry bulk market reached levels last seen back in 2015. The BDI closed today (13/09/2016) at 796 points, down by 8 points compared to yesterday’s levels (12/09/2016) and an increase of 51 points when compared to previous Tuesday’s closing (06/09/2016). Despite the fact that earnings kept witnessing pressure in some cases, activity for the crude carriers remained healthy, fact that will act as a meaningful support in the following days. The BDTI on Monday (12/09/2016) was at 543 points, an increase of 26 points and the BCTI at 402, a decrease of 32 points compared to last Tuesday’s (05/09/2016) levels.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 September 16
INDONESIA MAY FACE A COAL CRISIS BY 2035!
COALspot.com: Indonesia is the world’s fourth-largest coal producer and the world’s largest thermal coal exporter may face a coal crisi ...
Thursday, 15 September 16
CAPESIZE: LAST WEEK ENDED ON A VERY STRONG NOTE MAINLY DRIVEN BY A ACTIVE BRAZIL MARKET - FEARNLYS
Supramax
With holidays in the eastern hemisphere beginning this week, the sentiment and activity level has been decreasing.
In the Pacific, ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.48 MMT OF COAL IN AUGUST; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE WAS $AU 83.33
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU $1,040.4 ...
Tuesday, 13 September 16
CAPESIZE: BIG STRENGTH SEEN IN THE MARKET THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize - Big strength seen in the market this week, with an upbeat in sentiment amongst owners helping pull up rates fairly quickly and many hold ...
Monday, 12 September 16
THE CAPE MARKET HAS GAINS ON WEEK; THE CAPE INDEX SETTLING AT 1566 POINTS ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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