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Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
 In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand growth/patterns, and deflation in asset prices. And how prevalently this deflation has already manifested in newbuilding prices! In real dollar terms, we are currently at historic all-time lows!
In regards to dry bulkers, there is essentially no newbuilding market due to the steep discount of newbuilding resales versus ‘new’ newbuilding contracts. For example, Chinese Cape resales stand at rgn $33m while no yard can quote less than low $40m’s for newbuilding. Newbuilding prices are well into all-time inflation-adjusted lows. For instance, in 1985 at the absolute nominal nadir, Panamax Bulker newbuildings could be contracted at $13.5m which translate at $30.2m today’s dollars. This is low enough for investing because it is substantially below the true cost of creating the underlying asset and the current NB resale prices benchmark a nominal 15-year low vs newbuilding prices, a metric that appears unbeatable for several investments including shipping.
Tanker newbuilding prices are also depressed but at least there is a thin market with several LOIs placed and fewer actual contracts. Interestingly, in nominal terms we are well below the 2012 lows, one of the worst tanker freight years in modern history. This can be attributed to the deteriorating lack of financing and outlook on the segment. Tanker newbuildings will eventually become a buying opportunity since second hand vessel prices have been correcting but not any close to the dry bulk levels (the last is tanker owners’ worst fear).
Shipbuilding prices are moving towards the bottom while will remain low for some time -unless something spectacular occurs in the freight market- due to government subsidies, over-competition, low commodity prices, currencies devaluations, lack of financing and the yards resolution to accept loss-making orders to keep the production line going. On the other hand, the substantial downsizing of shipbuilding overcapacity, the emergence of government-backed NB contracts, certain attempts to cartelize pricing (see, Korea) and regulatory developments constitute major resistance levels.
All in all, the prevailing dry bulk newbuilding resales represent an attractive entry point. The ongoing correction in tanker newbuilding prices, which are already well-below the 2002 crashed prices in real dollars, will eventually lead to excellently timed orders. Hopefully over-ordering this time will be avoided thanks to lack of financing and the recent/ongoing traumas.Chartering (Wet: Stable +/ Dry: Firm +)
With a lot of help from Capes last week, the dry bulk market reached levels last seen back in 2015. The BDI closed today (13/09/2016) at 796 points, down by 8 points compared to yesterday’s levels (12/09/2016) and an increase of 51 points when compared to previous Tuesday’s closing (06/09/2016). Despite the fact that earnings kept witnessing pressure in some cases, activity for the crude carriers remained healthy, fact that will act as a meaningful support in the following days. The BDTI on Monday (12/09/2016) was at 543 points, an increase of 26 points and the BCTI at 402, a decrease of 32 points compared to last Tuesday’s (05/09/2016) levels.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 September 16
INDONESIA MAY FACE A COAL CRISIS BY 2035!
COALspot.com: Indonesia is the world’s fourth-largest coal producer and the world’s largest thermal coal exporter may face a coal crisi ...
Thursday, 15 September 16
CAPESIZE: LAST WEEK ENDED ON A VERY STRONG NOTE MAINLY DRIVEN BY A ACTIVE BRAZIL MARKET - FEARNLYS
Supramax
With holidays in the eastern hemisphere beginning this week, the sentiment and activity level has been decreasing.
In the Pacific, ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.48 MMT OF COAL IN AUGUST; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE WAS $AU 83.33
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU $1,040.4 ...
Tuesday, 13 September 16
CAPESIZE: BIG STRENGTH SEEN IN THE MARKET THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize - Big strength seen in the market this week, with an upbeat in sentiment amongst owners helping pull up rates fairly quickly and many hold ...
Monday, 12 September 16
THE CAPE MARKET HAS GAINS ON WEEK; THE CAPE INDEX SETTLING AT 1566 POINTS ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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