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Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
 In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand growth/patterns, and deflation in asset prices. And how prevalently this deflation has already manifested in newbuilding prices! In real dollar terms, we are currently at historic all-time lows!
In regards to dry bulkers, there is essentially no newbuilding market due to the steep discount of newbuilding resales versus ‘new’ newbuilding contracts. For example, Chinese Cape resales stand at rgn $33m while no yard can quote less than low $40m’s for newbuilding. Newbuilding prices are well into all-time inflation-adjusted lows. For instance, in 1985 at the absolute nominal nadir, Panamax Bulker newbuildings could be contracted at $13.5m which translate at $30.2m today’s dollars. This is low enough for investing because it is substantially below the true cost of creating the underlying asset and the current NB resale prices benchmark a nominal 15-year low vs newbuilding prices, a metric that appears unbeatable for several investments including shipping.
Tanker newbuilding prices are also depressed but at least there is a thin market with several LOIs placed and fewer actual contracts. Interestingly, in nominal terms we are well below the 2012 lows, one of the worst tanker freight years in modern history. This can be attributed to the deteriorating lack of financing and outlook on the segment. Tanker newbuildings will eventually become a buying opportunity since second hand vessel prices have been correcting but not any close to the dry bulk levels (the last is tanker owners’ worst fear).
Shipbuilding prices are moving towards the bottom while will remain low for some time -unless something spectacular occurs in the freight market- due to government subsidies, over-competition, low commodity prices, currencies devaluations, lack of financing and the yards resolution to accept loss-making orders to keep the production line going. On the other hand, the substantial downsizing of shipbuilding overcapacity, the emergence of government-backed NB contracts, certain attempts to cartelize pricing (see, Korea) and regulatory developments constitute major resistance levels.
All in all, the prevailing dry bulk newbuilding resales represent an attractive entry point. The ongoing correction in tanker newbuilding prices, which are already well-below the 2002 crashed prices in real dollars, will eventually lead to excellently timed orders. Hopefully over-ordering this time will be avoided thanks to lack of financing and the recent/ongoing traumas.Chartering (Wet: Stable +/ Dry: Firm +)
With a lot of help from Capes last week, the dry bulk market reached levels last seen back in 2015. The BDI closed today (13/09/2016) at 796 points, down by 8 points compared to yesterday’s levels (12/09/2016) and an increase of 51 points when compared to previous Tuesday’s closing (06/09/2016). Despite the fact that earnings kept witnessing pressure in some cases, activity for the crude carriers remained healthy, fact that will act as a meaningful support in the following days. The BDTI on Monday (12/09/2016) was at 543 points, an increase of 26 points and the BCTI at 402, a decrease of 32 points compared to last Tuesday’s (05/09/2016) levels.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 September 16
INDONESIA MAY FACE A COAL CRISIS BY 2035!
COALspot.com: Indonesia is the world’s fourth-largest coal producer and the world’s largest thermal coal exporter may face a coal crisi ...
Thursday, 15 September 16
CAPESIZE: LAST WEEK ENDED ON A VERY STRONG NOTE MAINLY DRIVEN BY A ACTIVE BRAZIL MARKET - FEARNLYS
Supramax
With holidays in the eastern hemisphere beginning this week, the sentiment and activity level has been decreasing.
In the Pacific, ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.48 MMT OF COAL IN AUGUST; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE WAS $AU 83.33
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU $1,040.4 ...
Tuesday, 13 September 16
CAPESIZE: BIG STRENGTH SEEN IN THE MARKET THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize - Big strength seen in the market this week, with an upbeat in sentiment amongst owners helping pull up rates fairly quickly and many hold ...
Monday, 12 September 16
THE CAPE MARKET HAS GAINS ON WEEK; THE CAPE INDEX SETTLING AT 1566 POINTS ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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