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Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
 In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand growth/patterns, and deflation in asset prices. And how prevalently this deflation has already manifested in newbuilding prices! In real dollar terms, we are currently at historic all-time lows!
In regards to dry bulkers, there is essentially no newbuilding market due to the steep discount of newbuilding resales versus ‘new’ newbuilding contracts. For example, Chinese Cape resales stand at rgn $33m while no yard can quote less than low $40m’s for newbuilding. Newbuilding prices are well into all-time inflation-adjusted lows. For instance, in 1985 at the absolute nominal nadir, Panamax Bulker newbuildings could be contracted at $13.5m which translate at $30.2m today’s dollars. This is low enough for investing because it is substantially below the true cost of creating the underlying asset and the current NB resale prices benchmark a nominal 15-year low vs newbuilding prices, a metric that appears unbeatable for several investments including shipping.
Tanker newbuilding prices are also depressed but at least there is a thin market with several LOIs placed and fewer actual contracts. Interestingly, in nominal terms we are well below the 2012 lows, one of the worst tanker freight years in modern history. This can be attributed to the deteriorating lack of financing and outlook on the segment. Tanker newbuildings will eventually become a buying opportunity since second hand vessel prices have been correcting but not any close to the dry bulk levels (the last is tanker owners’ worst fear).
Shipbuilding prices are moving towards the bottom while will remain low for some time -unless something spectacular occurs in the freight market- due to government subsidies, over-competition, low commodity prices, currencies devaluations, lack of financing and the yards resolution to accept loss-making orders to keep the production line going. On the other hand, the substantial downsizing of shipbuilding overcapacity, the emergence of government-backed NB contracts, certain attempts to cartelize pricing (see, Korea) and regulatory developments constitute major resistance levels.
All in all, the prevailing dry bulk newbuilding resales represent an attractive entry point. The ongoing correction in tanker newbuilding prices, which are already well-below the 2002 crashed prices in real dollars, will eventually lead to excellently timed orders. Hopefully over-ordering this time will be avoided thanks to lack of financing and the recent/ongoing traumas.Chartering (Wet: Stable +/ Dry: Firm +)
With a lot of help from Capes last week, the dry bulk market reached levels last seen back in 2015. The BDI closed today (13/09/2016) at 796 points, down by 8 points compared to yesterday’s levels (12/09/2016) and an increase of 51 points when compared to previous Tuesday’s closing (06/09/2016). Despite the fact that earnings kept witnessing pressure in some cases, activity for the crude carriers remained healthy, fact that will act as a meaningful support in the following days. The BDTI on Monday (12/09/2016) was at 543 points, an increase of 26 points and the BCTI at 402, a decrease of 32 points compared to last Tuesday’s (05/09/2016) levels.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 06 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE PACIFIC BASIN WAS THE MAIN REGION KEEPING UP WITH THE POSITIVE SUPPORT - ALLIED
Capesize
Despite some mixed feelings being seen early on in the week, we managed to see a positive week-on-week close on Friday with some positiv ...
Monday, 05 September 16
INDIA BECAME ADARO'S SECOND LARGEST MARKET IN 1H' 16
COALspot.com: The Wara Balangan blend product has been well received by customers in China and India - AI
In the second quarter of 2 ...
Monday, 05 September 16
POOR FREIGHT RATES DESPITE STRONG DEMAND GROWTH FROM CHINA - BIMCO
Demand
The dry bulk commodity imports into and exports out of China we have seen in the first half of 2016 are very positive – and nothing ...
Monday, 05 September 16
FREIGHT RATE FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
Friday, 02 September 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 19 MMST IN 2016 TO 55 MMST
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million sho ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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