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Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
 In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand growth/patterns, and deflation in asset prices. And how prevalently this deflation has already manifested in newbuilding prices! In real dollar terms, we are currently at historic all-time lows!
In regards to dry bulkers, there is essentially no newbuilding market due to the steep discount of newbuilding resales versus ‘new’ newbuilding contracts. For example, Chinese Cape resales stand at rgn $33m while no yard can quote less than low $40m’s for newbuilding. Newbuilding prices are well into all-time inflation-adjusted lows. For instance, in 1985 at the absolute nominal nadir, Panamax Bulker newbuildings could be contracted at $13.5m which translate at $30.2m today’s dollars. This is low enough for investing because it is substantially below the true cost of creating the underlying asset and the current NB resale prices benchmark a nominal 15-year low vs newbuilding prices, a metric that appears unbeatable for several investments including shipping.
Tanker newbuilding prices are also depressed but at least there is a thin market with several LOIs placed and fewer actual contracts. Interestingly, in nominal terms we are well below the 2012 lows, one of the worst tanker freight years in modern history. This can be attributed to the deteriorating lack of financing and outlook on the segment. Tanker newbuildings will eventually become a buying opportunity since second hand vessel prices have been correcting but not any close to the dry bulk levels (the last is tanker owners’ worst fear).
Shipbuilding prices are moving towards the bottom while will remain low for some time -unless something spectacular occurs in the freight market- due to government subsidies, over-competition, low commodity prices, currencies devaluations, lack of financing and the yards resolution to accept loss-making orders to keep the production line going. On the other hand, the substantial downsizing of shipbuilding overcapacity, the emergence of government-backed NB contracts, certain attempts to cartelize pricing (see, Korea) and regulatory developments constitute major resistance levels.
All in all, the prevailing dry bulk newbuilding resales represent an attractive entry point. The ongoing correction in tanker newbuilding prices, which are already well-below the 2002 crashed prices in real dollars, will eventually lead to excellently timed orders. Hopefully over-ordering this time will be avoided thanks to lack of financing and the recent/ongoing traumas.Chartering (Wet: Stable +/ Dry: Firm +)
With a lot of help from Capes last week, the dry bulk market reached levels last seen back in 2015. The BDI closed today (13/09/2016) at 796 points, down by 8 points compared to yesterday’s levels (12/09/2016) and an increase of 51 points when compared to previous Tuesday’s closing (06/09/2016). Despite the fact that earnings kept witnessing pressure in some cases, activity for the crude carriers remained healthy, fact that will act as a meaningful support in the following days. The BDTI on Monday (12/09/2016) was at 543 points, an increase of 26 points and the BCTI at 402, a decrease of 32 points compared to last Tuesday’s (05/09/2016) levels.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 09 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED SLIGHTLY TO 16.1 MMST, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 09 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE SENTIMENT IS SOLID, SAYS FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A quiet start with Labour Day celebrations in the United States leading to very little being reported from the Atlantic basin. Supramaxe ...
Thursday, 08 September 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS IN JUNE 2016 UP 29% COMPARED TO MAY 2016, SAYS EIA
U.S. coal production in August was 71 million short tons (MMst), which is 6 MMst (9%) higher than in the previous month and 12 MMst (14%) lower tha ...
Wednesday, 07 September 16
WEEKLY MARKET (TANKER) REPORT - INTERMODAL
What goes around comes around! The Shipping industry is infamous for its seasonality and cyclicality and the tanker sector is no exception to these ...
Tuesday, 06 September 16
INDO GOVT. SETS SEPTEMBER COAL REFERENCE PRICE AT US$ 63.93 PER TON; JUMP 20.17% YTD
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since April 2015. The government declared benchmark prices f ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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