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Tuesday, 05 July 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY NOT SEEN UNTIL 2018 - SGX
 SGX freight derivative volumes totaled 36,542 contracts in June (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts during the month (-1% m/m; +222% y/y).
The Baltic Dry Index ended June up 8%, driven by stronger chartering activity for larger vessel classes towards month-end. Forward curves imply near-term upside to Cape rates, though a relatively muted outlook for other vessel classes.
Stronger iron ore shipments and optimism over Chinese coal output restrictions, in turn spurring higher import demand, have provided some near-term support. Sustainability is in question though. Our latest industry survey suggests caution clearly persists, with surveyed participants becoming moderately more bearish on the timeline of dry bulk freight supply-demand rebalancing over the past six months.
SGX Freight Derivatives
Freight volumes in June totaled 36,542 contracts (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts (-1% m/m; +222% y/y). Futures comprised 98% of total swaps/futures volume during the period.
BDI creeps higher in June; volatility muted
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the month up 8% in June, with relative stability across the board before rates rose into month-end on stronger chartering activity. Capesize rates closed June 17% higher, while Panamax rates rose 15%. Among smaller vessels, Supramax and Handysize rates ended the month up 7% and down 3%, respectively. In the Capesize market in particular, volatility dropped to uncharacteristically low levels.
Forward expectations rose across the board in June, with the front end of the time charter forward curves (2016 contract months) all rising over 10%, while the near months in the Panamax and Supramax forward curves rose 19.5% and 18.3% respectively during June. Looking ahead, the forward curves imply strong upside for Capesize rates in the months ahead, while other vessel classes are expected to remain largely steady. The spot Cape/Panamax ratio closed June broadly unchanged at 1.50x, versus 1.49x a month ago (LTM avg.: 1.41x), remaining moderately above its last-twelve-month average.
Freight rates rise into month-end, industry remains cautious on market fundamentals
Following relative stability for much of the month, freight rates ticked higher into month-end on stronger chartering activity. In the coal market, domestic Chinese output restrictions and the resulting rise in unit costs have been spurring some optimism of stronger seaborne coal demand. In the iron ore market, Brazilian iron ore exports have notably been sequentially higher in Q3 (versus Q2) in all of the past ten years. That said, our latest industry survey indicates views have become moderately more cautious on the timing of a sustainable market rebalancing in the dry bulk freight market, with few anticipating a meaningful improvement in the supply -demand balance until 2018 at the earliest, and about a quarter of respondents not anticipating this until after 2020. Our survey also indicated a consensus view of between 0-3% global net dry bulk fleet growth this year.
Across key dry bulk commodities, iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports increased in June, continuing their general and sustained uptrend since early Q4 2015. Iron ore prices on average declined 5.7% m/m in June, though broke out higher towards month-end on a sentiment-driven rise in Chinese steel prices. Thermal coal inventory at Chinese ports on the other hand declined through June, while seaborne prices ended the month around a year-to-date high. Domestic Chinese output restrictions and higher unit costs have spurred optimism over stronger import demand in the coming months.
Source: SGX | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 06 September 16
INDO GOVT. SETS SEPTEMBER COAL REFERENCE PRICE AT US$ 63.93 PER TON; JUMP 20.17% YTD
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since April 2015. The government declared benchmark prices f ...
Tuesday, 06 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE PACIFIC BASIN WAS THE MAIN REGION KEEPING UP WITH THE POSITIVE SUPPORT - ALLIED
Capesize
Despite some mixed feelings being seen early on in the week, we managed to see a positive week-on-week close on Friday with some positiv ...
Monday, 05 September 16
INDIA BECAME ADARO'S SECOND LARGEST MARKET IN 1H' 16
COALspot.com: The Wara Balangan blend product has been well received by customers in China and India - AI
In the second quarter of 2 ...
Monday, 05 September 16
POOR FREIGHT RATES DESPITE STRONG DEMAND GROWTH FROM CHINA - BIMCO
Demand
The dry bulk commodity imports into and exports out of China we have seen in the first half of 2016 are very positive – and nothing ...
Monday, 05 September 16
FREIGHT RATE FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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