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Tuesday, 05 July 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY NOT SEEN UNTIL 2018 - SGX
 SGX freight derivative volumes totaled 36,542 contracts in June (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts during the month (-1% m/m; +222% y/y).
The Baltic Dry Index ended June up 8%, driven by stronger chartering activity for larger vessel classes towards month-end. Forward curves imply near-term upside to Cape rates, though a relatively muted outlook for other vessel classes.
Stronger iron ore shipments and optimism over Chinese coal output restrictions, in turn spurring higher import demand, have provided some near-term support. Sustainability is in question though. Our latest industry survey suggests caution clearly persists, with surveyed participants becoming moderately more bearish on the timeline of dry bulk freight supply-demand rebalancing over the past six months.
SGX Freight Derivatives
Freight volumes in June totaled 36,542 contracts (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts (-1% m/m; +222% y/y). Futures comprised 98% of total swaps/futures volume during the period.
BDI creeps higher in June; volatility muted
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the month up 8% in June, with relative stability across the board before rates rose into month-end on stronger chartering activity. Capesize rates closed June 17% higher, while Panamax rates rose 15%. Among smaller vessels, Supramax and Handysize rates ended the month up 7% and down 3%, respectively. In the Capesize market in particular, volatility dropped to uncharacteristically low levels.
Forward expectations rose across the board in June, with the front end of the time charter forward curves (2016 contract months) all rising over 10%, while the near months in the Panamax and Supramax forward curves rose 19.5% and 18.3% respectively during June. Looking ahead, the forward curves imply strong upside for Capesize rates in the months ahead, while other vessel classes are expected to remain largely steady. The spot Cape/Panamax ratio closed June broadly unchanged at 1.50x, versus 1.49x a month ago (LTM avg.: 1.41x), remaining moderately above its last-twelve-month average.
Freight rates rise into month-end, industry remains cautious on market fundamentals
Following relative stability for much of the month, freight rates ticked higher into month-end on stronger chartering activity. In the coal market, domestic Chinese output restrictions and the resulting rise in unit costs have been spurring some optimism of stronger seaborne coal demand. In the iron ore market, Brazilian iron ore exports have notably been sequentially higher in Q3 (versus Q2) in all of the past ten years. That said, our latest industry survey indicates views have become moderately more cautious on the timing of a sustainable market rebalancing in the dry bulk freight market, with few anticipating a meaningful improvement in the supply -demand balance until 2018 at the earliest, and about a quarter of respondents not anticipating this until after 2020. Our survey also indicated a consensus view of between 0-3% global net dry bulk fleet growth this year.
Across key dry bulk commodities, iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports increased in June, continuing their general and sustained uptrend since early Q4 2015. Iron ore prices on average declined 5.7% m/m in June, though broke out higher towards month-end on a sentiment-driven rise in Chinese steel prices. Thermal coal inventory at Chinese ports on the other hand declined through June, while seaborne prices ended the month around a year-to-date high. Domestic Chinese output restrictions and higher unit costs have spurred optimism over stronger import demand in the coming months.
Source: SGX | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 02 September 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 19 MMST IN 2016 TO 55 MMST
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million sho ...
Thursday, 01 September 16
SUPRAMAX GETTING LEVELS OF MID/HIGHER 7K DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR TRIPS TO CHINA AND AROUND 9K FOR DIRECTION INDIA - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
This week started slower with London on bank holiday Monday. The south east Asian market seems to have been taking a breather with chart ...
Thursday, 01 September 16
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.33 PERCENT MORE COAL IN JULY
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1.10 bill ...
Wednesday, 31 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET MANAGED TO FIND FURTHER SUPPORT DURING THE LAST DAYS OF THE SUMMER SEASON - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market managed to find further support during the last days of the summer season, with the BDI climbing above 700 last Friday, reachin ...
Tuesday, 30 August 16
THE SUDDEN SURGE IN IRON ORE TRADE HAS CREPT UP ON THE MARKET THIS PAST WEEK - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The sudden surge in Iron ore trade has crept up on the market this past week bringing about a change in the prospects for Capes. Continued increase ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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