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Tuesday, 05 July 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY NOT SEEN UNTIL 2018 - SGX
 SGX freight derivative volumes totaled 36,542 contracts in June (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts during the month (-1% m/m; +222% y/y).
The Baltic Dry Index ended June up 8%, driven by stronger chartering activity for larger vessel classes towards month-end. Forward curves imply near-term upside to Cape rates, though a relatively muted outlook for other vessel classes.
Stronger iron ore shipments and optimism over Chinese coal output restrictions, in turn spurring higher import demand, have provided some near-term support. Sustainability is in question though. Our latest industry survey suggests caution clearly persists, with surveyed participants becoming moderately more bearish on the timeline of dry bulk freight supply-demand rebalancing over the past six months.
SGX Freight Derivatives
Freight volumes in June totaled 36,542 contracts (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts (-1% m/m; +222% y/y). Futures comprised 98% of total swaps/futures volume during the period.
BDI creeps higher in June; volatility muted
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the month up 8% in June, with relative stability across the board before rates rose into month-end on stronger chartering activity. Capesize rates closed June 17% higher, while Panamax rates rose 15%. Among smaller vessels, Supramax and Handysize rates ended the month up 7% and down 3%, respectively. In the Capesize market in particular, volatility dropped to uncharacteristically low levels.
Forward expectations rose across the board in June, with the front end of the time charter forward curves (2016 contract months) all rising over 10%, while the near months in the Panamax and Supramax forward curves rose 19.5% and 18.3% respectively during June. Looking ahead, the forward curves imply strong upside for Capesize rates in the months ahead, while other vessel classes are expected to remain largely steady. The spot Cape/Panamax ratio closed June broadly unchanged at 1.50x, versus 1.49x a month ago (LTM avg.: 1.41x), remaining moderately above its last-twelve-month average.
Freight rates rise into month-end, industry remains cautious on market fundamentals
Following relative stability for much of the month, freight rates ticked higher into month-end on stronger chartering activity. In the coal market, domestic Chinese output restrictions and the resulting rise in unit costs have been spurring some optimism of stronger seaborne coal demand. In the iron ore market, Brazilian iron ore exports have notably been sequentially higher in Q3 (versus Q2) in all of the past ten years. That said, our latest industry survey indicates views have become moderately more cautious on the timing of a sustainable market rebalancing in the dry bulk freight market, with few anticipating a meaningful improvement in the supply -demand balance until 2018 at the earliest, and about a quarter of respondents not anticipating this until after 2020. Our survey also indicated a consensus view of between 0-3% global net dry bulk fleet growth this year.
Across key dry bulk commodities, iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports increased in June, continuing their general and sustained uptrend since early Q4 2015. Iron ore prices on average declined 5.7% m/m in June, though broke out higher towards month-end on a sentiment-driven rise in Chinese steel prices. Thermal coal inventory at Chinese ports on the other hand declined through June, while seaborne prices ended the month around a year-to-date high. Domestic Chinese output restrictions and higher unit costs have spurred optimism over stronger import demand in the coming months.
Source: SGX | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 15 September 16
INDONESIA MAY FACE A COAL CRISIS BY 2035!
COALspot.com: Indonesia is the world’s fourth-largest coal producer and the world’s largest thermal coal exporter may face a coal crisi ...
Thursday, 15 September 16
CAPESIZE: LAST WEEK ENDED ON A VERY STRONG NOTE MAINLY DRIVEN BY A ACTIVE BRAZIL MARKET - FEARNLYS
Supramax
With holidays in the eastern hemisphere beginning this week, the sentiment and activity level has been decreasing.
In the Pacific, ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.48 MMT OF COAL IN AUGUST; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE WAS $AU 83.33
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU $1,040.4 ...
Tuesday, 13 September 16
CAPESIZE: BIG STRENGTH SEEN IN THE MARKET THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize - Big strength seen in the market this week, with an upbeat in sentiment amongst owners helping pull up rates fairly quickly and many hold ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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