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Tuesday, 05 July 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY NOT SEEN UNTIL 2018 - SGX
 SGX freight derivative volumes totaled 36,542 contracts in June (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts during the month (-1% m/m; +222% y/y).
The Baltic Dry Index ended June up 8%, driven by stronger chartering activity for larger vessel classes towards month-end. Forward curves imply near-term upside to Cape rates, though a relatively muted outlook for other vessel classes.
Stronger iron ore shipments and optimism over Chinese coal output restrictions, in turn spurring higher import demand, have provided some near-term support. Sustainability is in question though. Our latest industry survey suggests caution clearly persists, with surveyed participants becoming moderately more bearish on the timeline of dry bulk freight supply-demand rebalancing over the past six months.
SGX Freight Derivatives
Freight volumes in June totaled 36,542 contracts (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts (-1% m/m; +222% y/y). Futures comprised 98% of total swaps/futures volume during the period.
BDI creeps higher in June; volatility muted
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the month up 8% in June, with relative stability across the board before rates rose into month-end on stronger chartering activity. Capesize rates closed June 17% higher, while Panamax rates rose 15%. Among smaller vessels, Supramax and Handysize rates ended the month up 7% and down 3%, respectively. In the Capesize market in particular, volatility dropped to uncharacteristically low levels.
Forward expectations rose across the board in June, with the front end of the time charter forward curves (2016 contract months) all rising over 10%, while the near months in the Panamax and Supramax forward curves rose 19.5% and 18.3% respectively during June. Looking ahead, the forward curves imply strong upside for Capesize rates in the months ahead, while other vessel classes are expected to remain largely steady. The spot Cape/Panamax ratio closed June broadly unchanged at 1.50x, versus 1.49x a month ago (LTM avg.: 1.41x), remaining moderately above its last-twelve-month average.
Freight rates rise into month-end, industry remains cautious on market fundamentals
Following relative stability for much of the month, freight rates ticked higher into month-end on stronger chartering activity. In the coal market, domestic Chinese output restrictions and the resulting rise in unit costs have been spurring some optimism of stronger seaborne coal demand. In the iron ore market, Brazilian iron ore exports have notably been sequentially higher in Q3 (versus Q2) in all of the past ten years. That said, our latest industry survey indicates views have become moderately more cautious on the timing of a sustainable market rebalancing in the dry bulk freight market, with few anticipating a meaningful improvement in the supply -demand balance until 2018 at the earliest, and about a quarter of respondents not anticipating this until after 2020. Our survey also indicated a consensus view of between 0-3% global net dry bulk fleet growth this year.
Across key dry bulk commodities, iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports increased in June, continuing their general and sustained uptrend since early Q4 2015. Iron ore prices on average declined 5.7% m/m in June, though broke out higher towards month-end on a sentiment-driven rise in Chinese steel prices. Thermal coal inventory at Chinese ports on the other hand declined through June, while seaborne prices ended the month around a year-to-date high. Domestic Chinese output restrictions and higher unit costs have spurred optimism over stronger import demand in the coming months.
Source: SGX | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 29 August 16
THE 5000 GAR THERMAL COAL INDEX HAS STRENGTHENED BY 9.90% SINCE JANUARY
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing upward and it is expected to ral ...
Monday, 29 August 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY AND FIRM THIS PAST WEEK; BCI ROSE 18.74%
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
Friday, 26 August 16
WEEKLY US COAL OUTPUT UP 0.7% W/W TO 16 MMST: EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16 million short tons ...
Thursday, 25 August 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE BEING FIXED IN REGION OF $9000
Supramax
Due to Chinese coal imports which continues to source much of the tonnage in SE Asia combined with a good flow of mineral exports ex Aus ...
Wednesday, 24 August 16
MARKET INSIGHT
Brazil and the world bid farewell on Sunday to the first Olympic Games in South America in the midst of a finale meant to be both one last bash and ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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