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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 04 July 16
BDI ROSE ON STRONGER DEMAND ACROSS ALL VESSEL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 11.16 percent from la ...
Friday, 01 July 16
BREXIT SET TO HURT SHIPPING IN THE LONG-TERM AS IT WILL TAKE ITS TOLL IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY'S GROWTH - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Setting aside the short-term negative impact of the Brexit, in terms of stock market and currency volatility, it’s more than evident that the ...
Friday, 01 July 16
U.S'S COAL EXPORTS HAVE DECLINED FOR TWELVE QUARTERS IN A ROW - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s one of the largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.7 million short t ...
Thursday, 30 June 16
CAPE - THIS WEEK'S FREIGHT AND ACTIVITY LEVEL HAVE KEPT STABLE - FEARNLEYS
Cape
This week’s freight and activity level have kept stable. It is support at the present levels and despite a volatile market the freight ...
Thursday, 30 June 16
OIL PRODUCT TANKERS EARNINGS DECLINE AS STOCKBUILDING SLOWS DOWN - BIMCO
BIMCO’s expectations remain as the oil product tanker fleet continues to grow with earnings at the lowest since Q3 in 2014. But there is stil ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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