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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 July 16
THE MAIN SEA FREIGHT INDEX, BDI ROSE FURTHER ON 8 JULY DUE TO STRONG DEMAND FOR PANAMAX SHIPS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 3.84 percent from las ...
Monday, 11 July 16
DRY BULK MARKET: UP TO 30 MILLION DWT OF OLDER BULKERS WILL NEED TO BE SCRAPPED BY END OF 2017 FOR MARKET TO FIND BALANCE
Tonnage oversupply in the dry bulk market is more than evident, as newbuildings have been hitting the water faster than owners can scrap their olde ...
Friday, 08 July 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 3% TO 14.1 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.1 million short tons (mms ...
Thursday, 07 July 16
PANAMAX : THE TENDENCY FROM LAST WEEK CONTINUES WITH A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER SENTIMENT ALL ACROSS THE BLOCK - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates have been holding at steady levels over the last weeks but towards end of this period they are becoming under more pressure as gen ...
Thursday, 07 July 16
CONSOLIDATION TO RULE OVER SHIPPING, AS EXECUTIVES SEEK INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA, INDIA AND EUROPE SAYS NORTON ROSE SURVEY
The transport sector is looking to Asia Pacific as the key market for investment over the next five years, according to the seventh The way ahead T ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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