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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 July 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 780000 MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Wednesday, 06 July 16
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS VASSILIOU
After a fairly silent first half of the year in the ship repair sector, we have finally a harmonized workload in the shipyards around the world. Ma ...
Tuesday, 05 July 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY NOT SEEN UNTIL 2018 - SGX
SGX freight derivative volumes totaled 36,542 contracts in June (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts during the mon ...
Tuesday, 05 July 16
SPOT COAL INDEXES FOR INDONESIAN COAL CONTINUE TO HOLD FIRM - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up by 0.83 percent week over week to averaging $39.98 per ton this past week, sh ...
Monday, 04 July 16
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE CLIMBED 2.30% IN JULY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price increased in July 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the r ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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