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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 27 June 16
THE BDI UP 3.75 PERCENT ; BCI FELL 1.51% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 3.75 percent from las ...
Monday, 27 June 16
INDONESIA BANS (AGAIN) SHIPS SAILING TO THE PHILIPPINES FROM INDONESIA
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Transport Ministry strictly prohibited harbour masters issuing permits to all Indonesian-flagged vessels bound for the ...
Friday, 24 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP MARGINALLY
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s one of the largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.4 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 22 June 16
SMALL RISE IN SHIPPING CONFIDENCE - MOORE STEPHENS
In May 2016, the average confidence level expressed by respondents in the markets in which they operate was 5.1 on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high). ...
Monday, 20 June 16
CS COAL INDICES CONTINUE UPWARD TREND SINCE END APRIL
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up again by 0.05 percent week over week to averaging $39.39 per ton this past we ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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