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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 27 June 16
THE BDI UP 3.75 PERCENT ; BCI FELL 1.51% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 3.75 percent from las ...
Monday, 27 June 16
INDONESIA BANS (AGAIN) SHIPS SAILING TO THE PHILIPPINES FROM INDONESIA
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Transport Ministry strictly prohibited harbour masters issuing permits to all Indonesian-flagged vessels bound for the ...
Friday, 24 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP MARGINALLY
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s one of the largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.4 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 22 June 16
SMALL RISE IN SHIPPING CONFIDENCE - MOORE STEPHENS
In May 2016, the average confidence level expressed by respondents in the markets in which they operate was 5.1 on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high). ...
Monday, 20 June 16
CS COAL INDICES CONTINUE UPWARD TREND SINCE END APRIL
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up again by 0.05 percent week over week to averaging $39.39 per ton this past we ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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