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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 27 June 16
THE BDI UP 3.75 PERCENT ; BCI FELL 1.51% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 3.75 percent from las ...
Monday, 27 June 16
INDONESIA BANS (AGAIN) SHIPS SAILING TO THE PHILIPPINES FROM INDONESIA
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Transport Ministry strictly prohibited harbour masters issuing permits to all Indonesian-flagged vessels bound for the ...
Friday, 24 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP MARGINALLY
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s one of the largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.4 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 22 June 16
SMALL RISE IN SHIPPING CONFIDENCE - MOORE STEPHENS
In May 2016, the average confidence level expressed by respondents in the markets in which they operate was 5.1 on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high). ...
Monday, 20 June 16
CS COAL INDICES CONTINUE UPWARD TREND SINCE END APRIL
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up again by 0.05 percent week over week to averaging $39.39 per ton this past we ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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