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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 14 July 16
SHIPPING'S HALF YEAR REPORT - 'MUST DO BETTER' - CLARKSONS
It’s the time of year, with the school holidays and end of term approaching, that many pupils will nervously take home their school reports t ...
Wednesday, 13 July 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 15 MMST IN 2016 AND BY 4 MMST IN 2017
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production in June was 57 million short tons (MMst), a 6 MMst (13%) increase from May and 9 MMst (14%) lower than in June 2 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 16
2015 VS. 2016; THE DRY BULK DEMOLITION DERBY - JOHN N. COTZIAS
In the first half of the year 373 Bulkers and General Cargo ships were scrapped representing 23.8mil tons of dwt carrying capacity.
Comparing ...
Tuesday, 12 July 16
DUE TO LONG HOLIDAYS, CS COAL INDICES HELD AT THE SAME LEVEL OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was flat week over week to averaging $39.98 per ton this past week.
Due to the ...
Monday, 11 July 16
COAL MARKETS SAW IMPROVED PRICES IN H1 2016 - SGX'S COMMODITIES MID-YEAR REFLECTION
COALspot.com: Coal
Coal markets saw improved prices in H1 2016 with the benchmark coking coal and thermal coal spot prices rising 18% and 25%, re ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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