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Tuesday, 10 May 16
VOLATILITY? VARIATION NO ENIGMA TO SHIPPING..... - CLARKSONS
 Along with cyclicality, the other characteristic of the shipping markets which receives frequent mention is volatility. This is so evident that the shipping markets are often reported to be many times more volatile than the stock markets or other fluctuating economic variables. Here we take a look at some metrics which shine some light on the relative volatility of the industry.
Measuring The Waves
Many metrics can be used to measure aspects of volatility (though none are perfect). A few are calculated here to compare volatility in the shipping markets with that in the stock and commodity markets. One classic measure of volatility is the ‘coefficient of variation’ which takes the standard deviation of a series over time (a measure of the degree of dispersion of observations in a series) and divides it by the mean (average) level of the series.
Volatile Business
This metric highlights the degree of volatility present in the shipping markets (see graph). For the ClarkSea Index it stands at 50%, for VLCC spot earnings 73% and Capesize spot earnings 104%. For the FTSE-100 the figure stands at 29% and for the S&P 500 43%. The stock markets, often thought highly capricious, appear to be quite a bit less volatile than shipping on this basis (and given that stock markets generally track a trend rather than a cycle, one might have expected their coefficients to be biased upwards). The oil price compares more closely to shipping; the figure for Brent crude stands at 73%. Another useful metric is the average absolute monthly change as a percentage of the mean. For the ClarkSea Index this stands at 8%, for VLCC spot earnings at 26% and Capesize spot earnings 18%. For the FTSE-100 and S&P 500 this stands at around 3% and for Brent at around 6%, so again much lower.
Of course this analysis doesn’t capture everything. It excludes week-to-week (or day-to-day) volatility, though one might suppose that this could further emphasise shipping’s volatility (for example, see VLCC spot earnings on page 2). Equally it does not handle (or ‘de-trend’) indicators differently to account for the fact that stock markets typically follow a long-term trend, rather than a cycle like shipping.
Variation On A Theme?
But, even using a regression approach to ascertain variation from simple trend levels, over 60% of the FTSE-100 movement is explained by the trend. In shipping, much more of the variation appears to remain ‘unexplained’ (less than 10% of the variation of the ClarkSea Index would be accounted for by a simple trend).
Need Good Sea Legs?
So, volatility in shipping easily holds its own against fluctuations in other economic phenomena. It’s a competitive business, and rapid changes in pricing can be driven by the steepness of the supply curve at the margins, as well as a range of quite unpredictable factors. This helps make shipping interesting for asset players and short-term speculators but tricky for investors looking for certainty of return and analysts looking for a clear picture. Like seafarers themselves, shipping market players can quite rightly point to having the stomach for ups and downs as much as anyone.
Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons
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Wednesday, 25 May 16
DRY BULK SNP MARKET DISPLAYS SIGNS OF STRENGTH - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Only a couple of weeks away from the world’s most prominent maritime event, the market for tankers displays an evident lack of confidence in ...
Tuesday, 24 May 16
WEEKLY CS COAL INDICES NEGATIVE FOR ALL TYPES OF COAL EXCEPT 3800 GAR COAL
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was down 0.10 percent week over week to averaging $38.90 per ton this past week, sho ...
Monday, 23 May 16
A PERFECT STORM FOR INDONESIAN STEAM COAL EXPORTS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
Indonesia is the world’s leading steam coal exporter, accounting for over 40% of global seaborne steam coal exports since 2010. However in 20 ...
Monday, 23 May 16
THE PANAMAX INDEX WAS UP 17 POINTS W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this week.
The freight market was firm and all ...
Friday, 20 May 16
SHIPBUILDING CONTRACTS: CAN I CANCEL? SHOULD I CANCEL? - THE SHIPOWNER CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are many circumstances in which a buyer of a new-build vessel might want to terminate or cancel their contract with ...
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Showing 2421 to 2425 news of total 6871 |
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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