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Tuesday, 10 May 16
VOLATILITY? VARIATION NO ENIGMA TO SHIPPING..... - CLARKSONS
 Along with cyclicality, the other characteristic of the shipping markets which receives frequent mention is volatility. This is so evident that the shipping markets are often reported to be many times more volatile than the stock markets or other fluctuating economic variables. Here we take a look at some metrics which shine some light on the relative volatility of the industry.
Measuring The Waves
Many metrics can be used to measure aspects of volatility (though none are perfect). A few are calculated here to compare volatility in the shipping markets with that in the stock and commodity markets. One classic measure of volatility is the ‘coefficient of variation’ which takes the standard deviation of a series over time (a measure of the degree of dispersion of observations in a series) and divides it by the mean (average) level of the series.
Volatile Business
This metric highlights the degree of volatility present in the shipping markets (see graph). For the ClarkSea Index it stands at 50%, for VLCC spot earnings 73% and Capesize spot earnings 104%. For the FTSE-100 the figure stands at 29% and for the S&P 500 43%. The stock markets, often thought highly capricious, appear to be quite a bit less volatile than shipping on this basis (and given that stock markets generally track a trend rather than a cycle, one might have expected their coefficients to be biased upwards). The oil price compares more closely to shipping; the figure for Brent crude stands at 73%. Another useful metric is the average absolute monthly change as a percentage of the mean. For the ClarkSea Index this stands at 8%, for VLCC spot earnings at 26% and Capesize spot earnings 18%. For the FTSE-100 and S&P 500 this stands at around 3% and for Brent at around 6%, so again much lower.
Of course this analysis doesn’t capture everything. It excludes week-to-week (or day-to-day) volatility, though one might suppose that this could further emphasise shipping’s volatility (for example, see VLCC spot earnings on page 2). Equally it does not handle (or ‘de-trend’) indicators differently to account for the fact that stock markets typically follow a long-term trend, rather than a cycle like shipping.
Variation On A Theme?
But, even using a regression approach to ascertain variation from simple trend levels, over 60% of the FTSE-100 movement is explained by the trend. In shipping, much more of the variation appears to remain ‘unexplained’ (less than 10% of the variation of the ClarkSea Index would be accounted for by a simple trend).
Need Good Sea Legs?
So, volatility in shipping easily holds its own against fluctuations in other economic phenomena. It’s a competitive business, and rapid changes in pricing can be driven by the steepness of the supply curve at the margins, as well as a range of quite unpredictable factors. This helps make shipping interesting for asset players and short-term speculators but tricky for investors looking for certainty of return and analysts looking for a clear picture. Like seafarers themselves, shipping market players can quite rightly point to having the stomach for ups and downs as much as anyone.
Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons
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Wednesday, 01 June 16
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IN APRIL 2016 DECLINED 15% Y/Y; COAL INDIA INCREASED COAL PRICES BY 6.2%
Coal India has approved raising weighted average coal prices by 6.2 per cent over the current price for both regulated and non-regulated sectors.
...
Wednesday, 01 June 16
ZERO SUPPLY TO FUEL GROWTH IN THE DRY BULK MARKET SAYS BIMCO PRESIDENT
The dry bulk market could become profitable again in 2019 – but only if a series of extremely tough and sustained measures are taken by shipo ...
Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. &n ...
Tuesday, 31 May 16
CS50 INDONESIA COAL INDEX UP 0.28% COMPARED WITH A WEEK AGO
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $39.01 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 30 May 16
BORYEONG POWER PLANT TO IMPORT HALF A MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 500,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal T ...
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Showing 2411 to 2415 news of total 6871 |
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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