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Tuesday, 10 May 16
VOLATILITY? VARIATION NO ENIGMA TO SHIPPING..... - CLARKSONS
 Along with cyclicality, the other characteristic of the shipping markets which receives frequent mention is volatility. This is so evident that the shipping markets are often reported to be many times more volatile than the stock markets or other fluctuating economic variables. Here we take a look at some metrics which shine some light on the relative volatility of the industry.
Measuring The Waves
Many metrics can be used to measure aspects of volatility (though none are perfect). A few are calculated here to compare volatility in the shipping markets with that in the stock and commodity markets. One classic measure of volatility is the ‘coefficient of variation’ which takes the standard deviation of a series over time (a measure of the degree of dispersion of observations in a series) and divides it by the mean (average) level of the series.
Volatile Business
This metric highlights the degree of volatility present in the shipping markets (see graph). For the ClarkSea Index it stands at 50%, for VLCC spot earnings 73% and Capesize spot earnings 104%. For the FTSE-100 the figure stands at 29% and for the S&P 500 43%. The stock markets, often thought highly capricious, appear to be quite a bit less volatile than shipping on this basis (and given that stock markets generally track a trend rather than a cycle, one might have expected their coefficients to be biased upwards). The oil price compares more closely to shipping; the figure for Brent crude stands at 73%. Another useful metric is the average absolute monthly change as a percentage of the mean. For the ClarkSea Index this stands at 8%, for VLCC spot earnings at 26% and Capesize spot earnings 18%. For the FTSE-100 and S&P 500 this stands at around 3% and for Brent at around 6%, so again much lower.
Of course this analysis doesn’t capture everything. It excludes week-to-week (or day-to-day) volatility, though one might suppose that this could further emphasise shipping’s volatility (for example, see VLCC spot earnings on page 2). Equally it does not handle (or ‘de-trend’) indicators differently to account for the fact that stock markets typically follow a long-term trend, rather than a cycle like shipping.
Variation On A Theme?
But, even using a regression approach to ascertain variation from simple trend levels, over 60% of the FTSE-100 movement is explained by the trend. In shipping, much more of the variation appears to remain ‘unexplained’ (less than 10% of the variation of the ClarkSea Index would be accounted for by a simple trend).
Need Good Sea Legs?
So, volatility in shipping easily holds its own against fluctuations in other economic phenomena. It’s a competitive business, and rapid changes in pricing can be driven by the steepness of the supply curve at the margins, as well as a range of quite unpredictable factors. This helps make shipping interesting for asset players and short-term speculators but tricky for investors looking for certainty of return and analysts looking for a clear picture. Like seafarers themselves, shipping market players can quite rightly point to having the stomach for ups and downs as much as anyone.
Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons
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Friday, 20 May 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDED 14 MAY TOTALED 11.4 MMST; UP 3.8% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.4 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 19 May 16
AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE CARGOES PUSHED UP THE FREIGHT RATES FOR CAPE THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
It has been a big jump in the freight rates for Cape size this week, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report. All of the Australian iron ...
Thursday, 19 May 16
DISPUTE OVER VAT ON COAL DRAGS ON, CAUSING DOUBLE-BLOW TO MINERS - JP
The dispute over the value-added tax ( VAT ) mechanism between coal miners operating under third-generation contracts and the Finance Ministry&rsqu ...
Wednesday, 18 May 16
DRY BULK OUTLOOK REMAINS GLOOMY SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE, AS SHIPPING NEEDS TO RETHINK BUSINESS MODEL - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Our Shipping Market Review – May 2016 is devoted to the fourth industrial revolution. To understand the truly disruptive nature of the fourth ...
Wednesday, 18 May 16
LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching the end of the first half of the year, there is a number of market participants over at the dry bulk sector that have started ...
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Showing 2426 to 2430 news of total 6871 |
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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