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Tuesday, 10 May 16
VOLATILITY? VARIATION NO ENIGMA TO SHIPPING..... - CLARKSONS
 Along with cyclicality, the other characteristic of the shipping markets which receives frequent mention is volatility. This is so evident that the shipping markets are often reported to be many times more volatile than the stock markets or other fluctuating economic variables. Here we take a look at some metrics which shine some light on the relative volatility of the industry.
Measuring The Waves
Many metrics can be used to measure aspects of volatility (though none are perfect). A few are calculated here to compare volatility in the shipping markets with that in the stock and commodity markets. One classic measure of volatility is the ‘coefficient of variation’ which takes the standard deviation of a series over time (a measure of the degree of dispersion of observations in a series) and divides it by the mean (average) level of the series.
Volatile Business
This metric highlights the degree of volatility present in the shipping markets (see graph). For the ClarkSea Index it stands at 50%, for VLCC spot earnings 73% and Capesize spot earnings 104%. For the FTSE-100 the figure stands at 29% and for the S&P 500 43%. The stock markets, often thought highly capricious, appear to be quite a bit less volatile than shipping on this basis (and given that stock markets generally track a trend rather than a cycle, one might have expected their coefficients to be biased upwards). The oil price compares more closely to shipping; the figure for Brent crude stands at 73%. Another useful metric is the average absolute monthly change as a percentage of the mean. For the ClarkSea Index this stands at 8%, for VLCC spot earnings at 26% and Capesize spot earnings 18%. For the FTSE-100 and S&P 500 this stands at around 3% and for Brent at around 6%, so again much lower.
Of course this analysis doesn’t capture everything. It excludes week-to-week (or day-to-day) volatility, though one might suppose that this could further emphasise shipping’s volatility (for example, see VLCC spot earnings on page 2). Equally it does not handle (or ‘de-trend’) indicators differently to account for the fact that stock markets typically follow a long-term trend, rather than a cycle like shipping.
Variation On A Theme?
But, even using a regression approach to ascertain variation from simple trend levels, over 60% of the FTSE-100 movement is explained by the trend. In shipping, much more of the variation appears to remain ‘unexplained’ (less than 10% of the variation of the ClarkSea Index would be accounted for by a simple trend).
Need Good Sea Legs?
So, volatility in shipping easily holds its own against fluctuations in other economic phenomena. It’s a competitive business, and rapid changes in pricing can be driven by the steepness of the supply curve at the margins, as well as a range of quite unpredictable factors. This helps make shipping interesting for asset players and short-term speculators but tricky for investors looking for certainty of return and analysts looking for a clear picture. Like seafarers themselves, shipping market players can quite rightly point to having the stomach for ups and downs as much as anyone.
Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons
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Monday, 30 May 16
BCI ENDING AT 830 POINTS, DOWN 4.6 PER CENT W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week. The freight market was weak this past ...
Friday, 27 May 16
PET-COKE IMPORTS TO FACE PRESSURE IN INDIA
COALspot.com: An Indian environmental activist moved the National Green Tribunal seeking ban on the use of all forms of petroleum coke, also called ...
Friday, 27 May 16
US COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 2.9% WOW, ACCORDING TO EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.7 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 26 May 16
GIANT ORE CARRIERS SET TO PLAY A BIGGER ROLE IN THE GLOBAL SHIPPING FLEET: CHINA EMBRACES VALEMAXES - RICHARD SCOTT
Another phase of the giant ships era is approaching. Chinese shipowners placed orders recently for 30 huge ‘valemax’ ore carriers. Thes ...
Wednesday, 25 May 16
MEDIATION AS A WAY TO RESOLVE DISPUTES IN THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - LANA JACOBS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping market is currently experiencing a serious recession with the Baltic Dry Index and Baltic Capesize Index bot ...
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Showing 2416 to 2420 news of total 6871 |
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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