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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Friday, 29 April 16
U.S. COAL IMPORTS IN Q4' 15 DECLINED TO 2.7 MMST FROM 3 MMST IN Q3' 15
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.3 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 28 April 16
PRICES OF POWER-STATION COAL IN INDONESIA IS INCREASING
COALspot.com: Inquiries for Indonesian 4200 - 4400 Kcal/kg GAR thermal coal cargoes from India suddenly increase recent days.
A Jakarta-based ...
Thursday, 28 April 16
KOMIPO TO IMPORT 710K MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL DURING JULY - SEPTEMBER 2016
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 710,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Thursday, 28 April 16
CAPE: BIT MORE OPTIMISM IN THE MARKET; SUPRAMAX: FORWARD CURVE IS FALLING - FEARNLEYS
Cape
A bit of a slower week. Activity level has dropped, though the rates do still remain firm, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Wednesday, 27 April 16
THE OCEAN SHIPPING EXPERIENCED DRAMATIC VOLATILITY IN THE BEGINNING OF 2016 - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
Shipping’s new (ab)normal
The global economy and ocean shipping experienced dramatic volatility in the beginning of 2016 and as the glob ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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