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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Friday, 06 May 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 9 PERCENT W/W; DOWN 35.3 PERCENT Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.3 million short to ...
Thursday, 05 May 16
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, AS HOLIDAYS AROUND THE WORLD HURT DEMAND - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market’s recent rally has been put on a temporary hold, as various holidays around the world have put a stop in it. In its lates ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
COAL IMPORTS: A VOLATILE MATTER OR STILL POWERING DOWN? - CLARKSONS
Chinese coal imports decreased significantly in 2014-15, and so far in 2016 the pace of decline appears to have slowed, with imports even recording ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
IS THE DRY BULK MARKET OUT OF THE WOODS YET, OR NOT? - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Things are beginning to brighten up in the beleaguered dry bulk market, which is riding on a multi-week rally to find itself around the “psyc ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
POWER - WEEK: REAL EXAMPLES AND CASE STUDIES
POWER WEEK
7 - 11 November 2016, PARKROYAL on Beach Road Hotel, Singapore
www.power-week.com
Overview
Designed for the global e ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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