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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Tuesday, 03 May 16
HOW TO AVOID THE LATEST CARGO FRAUDS - BIMCO
BIMCO receives regular reports from members around the world about cargo fraud. This week alone we have had two reports of cargoes being fixed (or ...
Monday, 02 May 16
INDIA'S GANGAVARAM PORT SETS ALL INDIA RECORD FOR NON-COKING COAL DISCHARGE
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, the deepest and the most modern port in India, has created yet another historical milestone record by discharging 15 ...
Monday, 02 May 16
CS (I) 5000 GAR COAL INDEX CLOSES 0.11% HIGHER, 5700 GAR COAL RISES 0.07% W/W
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $38.78 per ton on this past Friday, acco ...
Monday, 02 May 16
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Saturday, 30 April 16
40 YEARS OF HANDLING COAL AT THE BTW IN WILHELMSHAVEN UNDER THE RHENUS FLAG
Press Release: The first bulk carrier with coal on board docked at the Bulk Terminal Wilhelmshaven (BTW), which is operated by Rhenus Midgar ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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