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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Wednesday, 27 April 16
INDONESIAN COAL MINER KIDECO REPORTED NET PROFIT OF US$138.1 MILLION IN 2015
COALspot.com: Kideco Jaya Agung, one of the Indonesia's leading coal miners has reported net profit of US$138.1 million on revenue of US$1.65 b ...
Tuesday, 26 April 16
INDONESIA BANNED COAL EXPORTS TO PHILIPPINES BY BARGES DUE TO SECURITY CONCERN
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) on behalf of the government of Indonesia has Freeze coal exports by barges to Phi ...
Tuesday, 26 April 16
NEWBUILDING DEMAND DOWN EVERYWHERE? - CLARKSONS
Newbuild activity provides one indication of an owner country’s likely future fleet growth, though secondhand sale and purchase and demolitio ...
Monday, 25 April 16
CHINESE STEEL PRICE SURGE NOT SUSTAINABLE - FITCH
The rapid increase in Chinese steel prices so far this year is not sustainable, as it is largely due to a seasonal pick-up in construction and elev ...
Monday, 25 April 16
WEEKLY CS (I) COAL INDICES END ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.05 percent week over week to averaging $38.67 per ton on this past Friday, acco ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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