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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 12 February 16
DRY BULK MARKET'S FORTUNES STILL TIED WITH CHINA'S ECONOMY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The inevitable slowdown of the Chinese economy was expected to hurt dry bulk shipping, but few expected the blow to be this hard, especially given ...
Friday, 12 February 16
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE 13% IN 2016 TO $50 ATON, ON CONTINUED WEAK DEMAND AND OVERSUPPLY - WORLD BANK
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices fell 9 percent in the fourth quarter on continued weak demand, high stocks, and surplus production, World Bank sa ...
Friday, 12 February 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 5.4% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12.9 million shor ...
Thursday, 11 February 16
GLOBAL NEWBUILDING ORDERBOOK IS SHRINKING ON A DAILY BASIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2016 has started right where 2015 left off when it comes to newbuilding ordering activity, i.e. there are slim pickings to be had from shipyards ar ...
Wednesday, 10 February 16
SOUTH AFRICA IS HOPING TO SHIP MORE COAL TO INDIA IN 2016
COALspot.com: South Africa is hoping to boost coal exports to India after shipping a record 75.4 million tonnes of coal in 2015, industry officials ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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