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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 12 February 16
DRY BULK MARKET'S FORTUNES STILL TIED WITH CHINA'S ECONOMY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The inevitable slowdown of the Chinese economy was expected to hurt dry bulk shipping, but few expected the blow to be this hard, especially given ...
Friday, 12 February 16
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE 13% IN 2016 TO $50 ATON, ON CONTINUED WEAK DEMAND AND OVERSUPPLY - WORLD BANK
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices fell 9 percent in the fourth quarter on continued weak demand, high stocks, and surplus production, World Bank sa ...
Friday, 12 February 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 5.4% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12.9 million shor ...
Thursday, 11 February 16
GLOBAL NEWBUILDING ORDERBOOK IS SHRINKING ON A DAILY BASIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2016 has started right where 2015 left off when it comes to newbuilding ordering activity, i.e. there are slim pickings to be had from shipyards ar ...
Wednesday, 10 February 16
SOUTH AFRICA IS HOPING TO SHIP MORE COAL TO INDIA IN 2016
COALspot.com: South Africa is hoping to boost coal exports to India after shipping a record 75.4 million tonnes of coal in 2015, industry officials ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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