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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 12 February 16
DRY BULK MARKET'S FORTUNES STILL TIED WITH CHINA'S ECONOMY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The inevitable slowdown of the Chinese economy was expected to hurt dry bulk shipping, but few expected the blow to be this hard, especially given ...
Friday, 12 February 16
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE 13% IN 2016 TO $50 ATON, ON CONTINUED WEAK DEMAND AND OVERSUPPLY - WORLD BANK
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices fell 9 percent in the fourth quarter on continued weak demand, high stocks, and surplus production, World Bank sa ...
Friday, 12 February 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 5.4% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12.9 million shor ...
Thursday, 11 February 16
GLOBAL NEWBUILDING ORDERBOOK IS SHRINKING ON A DAILY BASIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2016 has started right where 2015 left off when it comes to newbuilding ordering activity, i.e. there are slim pickings to be had from shipyards ar ...
Wednesday, 10 February 16
SOUTH AFRICA IS HOPING TO SHIP MORE COAL TO INDIA IN 2016
COALspot.com: South Africa is hoping to boost coal exports to India after shipping a record 75.4 million tonnes of coal in 2015, industry officials ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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